Alaska Senate race tightens as Peltola challenges Sullivan on cost-of-living and war

Democrat hopes to flip seat in November midterms amid high prices and Trump's unpopularity in the state

By LineZotpaper

Published22 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Mary Peltola, a Democrat and former US House member, is mounting a strong challenge to Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska, a race that has become a top target in the 3 November midterms. Peltola has centred her campaign on the cost-of-living crisis, blaming President Trump's tariffs and the Iran war for driving up prices in the state's remote communities, where paper towels can cost $40 and power bills have climbed to $1,500 a month. Sullivan, a two-term incumbent, has emphasised his support for Alaska's oil and gas industries and military installations, but has trailed in some recent polls.

The Alaska Senate race is shaping up as one of the most competitive contests in the US midterms, with Democrat Mary Peltola seeking to become the first Democrat to win the seat in nearly two decades. Peltola, an Alaska native and former US House representative who lost re-election in 2024, is running on a platform of "fish, family, freedom" and has attacked Sullivan for backing Trump's policies.

"These really frivolous decisions are just putting Alaskans in a bind, and we're really paying the price for these weird partisan wars," Peltola said during a visit to an airport picket line in Anchorage.

Sullivan, first elected in 2014, has pushed back by highlighting Peltola's record. "Joe Biden, Schumer, their Democratic allies came after Alaska with a barrage of executive orders to shut down our state, kill jobs, drive up the cost of energy, and my opponent, Mary Peltola, not only did nothing to stop it, she enabled it," Sullivan said at a rally with President Trump in Wasilla.

The race has drawn tens of millions of dollars in outside spending. Trump himself made the long journey to the conservative Matanuska-Susitna valley to rally for Sullivan, telling supporters that if Peltola gets in "you're screwed."

Alaska's unique political landscape adds to the uncertainty. The state uses ranked-choice voting, and a similarly named Republican challenger who made it through the top-four primary could split Sullivan's support. The outcome may take days to determine.

A separate dynamic is the allegation reported by the New York Times in September that Peltola verbally and physically abused staff and used slurs. Peltola's campaign has said parts of the report are not true and noted some behaviour occurred while she was grieving the death of her husband.

Alaska Democratic Party chair Eric Croft framed the election as a repudiation of incumbents. "In 23 short days, we're going to be voting both Nick Begich and Dan Sullivan out of office, and they richly deserve it," he said at a press conference.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The outcome could tip the Senate balance, making this one of the most watched races of the 2026 midterms.
Alaska's cost-of-living crisis, exacerbated by federal policies, is testing Trump-era economic narratives in a state that has never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate except Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
The use of ranked-choice voting and high outside spending make this a laboratory for how competitive elections work in non-traditional battlegrounds.

Background

Alaska has a distinctly nonpartisan political culture: about 60% of voters do not identify with either major party, and bipartisan majorities currently control the state legislature. The state's only Democratic US House member in recent history was Peltola herself, who won a special election in 2022 after the death of Republican Don Young. She lost the seat to Republican Nick Begich in 2024. The Senate seat has been held by Republicans since 2002, and the state's other senator, Lisa Murkowski, is one of the most frequent Republican critics of Trump.

Key Perspectives

Mary Peltola and Democrats: They argue that Trump's tariffs and the Iran war have made life unaffordable for rural Alaskans, who rely on imported goods and diesel generators. Peltola's campaign highlights bycatch issues in fisheries and supports oil and gas development, positioning her as a pragmatic centrist. Dan Sullivan and Republicans: Sullivan stresses his record of advocating for Alaska's military bases, oil projects and infrastructure. He casts Peltola as a tool of national Democrats who want to shut down the state's energy industry and turn Alaska into a national park. Critics and Undecided Voters: Allegations of staff mistreatment could erode Peltola's support, while Sullivan faces a split from a similarly named Republican candidate. Independent voters, who make up a large share of the electorate, may decide the race based on which candidate they trust to lower costs without sacrificing Alaska's resource economy.

What to Watch

The final polls on 3 November and the pace of Alaska's ballot-counting, which often takes days.
How ranked-choice voting affects the outcome if the Republican challenger draws votes from Sullivan.
The impact of the New York Times allegations on Peltola's support in the final weeks of the campaign.

Sources

Trump’s war and tariffs have battered Alaska. A pro-oil Democrat could flip the key Senate seat · World news | The Guardian

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 7 supported.

Show each claim

Not in the sourcesThe Alaska Senate race is tightening.World news | The Guardian: “Sullivan, who has trailed in some recent polls.”
Partly supportedTrump is unpopular in Alaska.World news | The Guardian: “but has nonetheless remained a firm ally of of the president, even as his popularity has waned”
SupportedPeltola said, “These really frivolous decisions are just putting Alaskans in a bind, and we're really paying the price for these weird partisan wars,” at an Anchorage airport picket line.World news | The Guardian: ““These really frivolous decisions are just putting Alaskans in a bind, and we’re really paying the price for these weird partisan wars,” Peltola said as she visited a picket line of flight attendants at Anchorage’s main airport.”
Not in the sourcesPeltola has attacked Sullivan for backing Trump’s policies.World news | The Guardian
Partly supportedPaper towels can cost $40 and power bills have climbed to $1,500 a month in the same remote communities.World news | The Guardian: “She has been to towns where paper towels retail for $40, a half gallon of oat milk goes for $21”
SupportedSullivan said, “Joe Biden, Schumer, their Democratic allies came after Alaska with a barrage of executive orders to shut down our state, kill jobs, drive up the cost of energy, and my opponent, Mary Peltola, not only did nothing to stop it, she enabled it,” at a rally with Trump.World news | The Guardian: ““Joe Biden, Schumer, their Democratic allies came after Alaska with a barrage of executive orders to shut down our state, kill jobs, drive up the cost of energy, and my opponent, Mary Peltola, not only did nothing to stop it, she enabled it,” Sullivan said as he rallied with Trump.”
SupportedTrump told supporters that if Peltola gets in, “you're screwed.”World news | The Guardian: ““If she gets in, you’re screwed,” the president told a packed sports center in Wasilla”
SupportedThe race is a top target in the 3 November midterms, and Sullivan has trailed in some recent polls.World news | The Guardian: “The Senate seat currently held by two-term Republican Dan Sullivan is a top prize. ... Sullivan, who has trailed in some recent polls.”
SupportedA New York Times report in September alleged that Peltola verbally and physically abused staff and used slurs.World news | The Guardian: “He gained new ammunition against Peltola in September, when the New York Times reported allegations that she had verbally and physically abused her staff and used slurs.”
SupportedTrump’s visit to Wasilla was to rally support for Sullivan, and outside groups spent tens of millions of dollars supporting both candidates.World news | The Guardian: “Outside groups have poured in tens of millions of dollars into supporting both candidates, and last week Donald Trump made the long journey from Washington DC to the conservative Matanuska-Susitna valley to rally voters behind Sullivan”
SupportedEric Croft said, “In 23 short days, we're going to be voting both Nick Begich and Dan Sullivan out of office, and they richly deserve it.”World news | The Guardian: ““In 23 short days, we’re going to be voting both [Republican congressman] Nick Begich and Dan Sullivan out of office, and they richly deserve it,” the chair of the state Democratic party, Eric Croft, said at a press conference last week.”