Cryptocurrency analysts say Binance’s pledge to cover all user losses helped contain fallout from its $6.3 billion hot-wallet hack on Oct. 29, the largest crypto hack to date, with no broader market contagion.
Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, told Cointelegraph: “There doesn’t seem to be any contagion-type effect from the hack, given that Binance is able to cover the losses using its balance sheet.” He said investors shifted their focus to the implications of the US midterm elections.
Data from DefiLlama shows Binance’s daily net outflows fell to $458 million in the 24 hours leading to Monday’s publication time, down from $6.1 billion on Nov. 2 after withdrawals resumed.
Bitcoin fell as much as 5.7% in the first five days after the hack, a drop CryptoQuant described as “modest” in its Wednesday report. By comparison, Bitcoin fell about 13.6% after the $1.4 billion Bybit hack in 2025 and roughly 9.9% after the Coincheck hack in 2018. CryptoQuant reviewed 38 past hacks and found that at least 14 were followed by steeper Bitcoin declines.
Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph that major exchange hacks have previously triggered “short-lived drawdowns that markets later absorbed” as long-term holder demand returned, and said the Binance hack does not represent a “structural trend reversal” for crypto markets.
Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph: “Much of the hack’s impact now looks priced in,” with Bitcoin currently trading at an “attractive level.” They added that “confirmation of a market bottom now depends on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading due on 10 November, which will shape the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Higher bond yields would put pressure on risk assets.”
Market participants priced in an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its Dec. 9 meeting, up from 69% a month earlier, according to the CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool. Bitcoin fell 2.5% over 24 hours to $74,580 as of 1:21 pm UTC on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap.
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Bitcoin price decline after major exchange hacks
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Source: CryptoQuant
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The $6.3 billion hack is the largest ever in crypto, and the absence of a market panic suggests the industry is maturing in its crisis response.
Binance’s ability to cover losses from its balance sheet signals the financial resilience of major exchanges, which may reassure retail investors.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, partly shaped by the Nov. 10 CPI reading, now becomes the primary driver for crypto prices.
Background
The Oct. 29 breach of Binance hot wallets netted $6.3 billion, surpassing all previous exchange hacks. Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, said it would cover all user losses, a move analysts credit with containing wider market fallout. The hack occurred against a backdrop of US midterm elections and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Key Perspectives
DWF Labs (Martin Lee): The lack of contagion is because Binance can cover losses from its balance sheet. Investors have pivoted to the US midterm elections.
Bitget Wallet (Lacie Zhang): Major exchange hacks historically cause short-lived drawdowns absorbed by long-term holder demand. The Binance hack is not a structural trend reversal.
Bitfinex Analysts: The hack’s impact looks priced in; Bitcoin is at an attractive level. Confirmation of a market bottom depends on the Nov. 10 CPI reading and the Fed’s next move.
What to Watch
The Nov. 10 CPI data and its effect on Fed rate expectations.
Binance withdrawal flows in the coming weeks to gauge sustained investor trust.
Whether regulators introduce new security requirements for exchange hot wallets following the record breach.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
SupportedAnalysts see no broader contagion from the Binance hack.Cointelegraph.com News: “Analysts see no broader ‘contagion’ from $6.3B Binance hack”
SupportedBinance’s pledge to cover user losses helped contain the fallout across crypto markets.Cointelegraph.com News: “Binance’s pledge to cover user losses from its $6.3 billion hack helped contain the fallout across crypto markets, analysts told Cointelegraph.”
SupportedThe Oct. 29 breach involved about $6.3 billion stolen from Binance hot wallets and was the largest crypto hack to date.Cointelegraph.com News: “Attackers stole about $6.3 billion from Binance hot wallets in the Oct. 29 breach, making it the largest crypto hack to date.”
SupportedMartin Lee said there did not seem to be a contagion-type effect because Binance could cover the losses using its balance sheet.Cointelegraph.com News: ““There doesn’t seem to be any contagion-type effect from the hack, given that Binance is able to cover the losses using its balance sheet,” Martin Lee, market insights lead at DWF Labs, told Cointelegraph.”
SupportedBinance’s daily net outflows fell to $458 million in the 24 hours before Monday’s publication time, from $6.1 billion on Nov. 2 after withdrawals resumed.Cointelegraph.com News: “Binance’s daily net outflows fell to $458 million in the 24 hours leading to Monday’s publication time, down from $6.1 billion on Nov. 2 after withdrawals resumed, according to DefiLlama.”
SupportedBitcoin fell as much as 5.7% in the first five days after the hack, a decline CryptoQuant called “modest” in its Wednesday report.Cointelegraph.com News: “Bitcoin (BTC) fell as much as 5.7% over the first five days after the hack, a decline CryptoQuant called “modest” in its Wednesday report .”
SupportedBitcoin fell roughly 13.6% after the 2025 Bybit hack and about 9.9% after the 2018 Coincheck hack.Cointelegraph.com News: “Bitcoin fell roughly 13.6% after the $1.4 billion Bybit hack in 2025 and about 9.9% after the Coincheck hack in 2018.”
SupportedCryptoQuant found that at least 14 of the 38 past hacks it reviewed were followed by steeper Bitcoin declines.Cointelegraph.com News: “At least 14 of the past 38 hacks CryptoQuant reviewed were followed by steeper Bitcoin declines.”
SupportedLacie Zhang said major exchange hacks have triggered short-lived drawdowns that markets later absorbed as long-term holder demand returned, and said the Binance hack does not represent a structural trend reversal for crypto markets.Cointelegraph.com News: “Major exchange hacks have previously triggered “short-lived drawdowns that markets later absorbed” as long-term holder demand returned, Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph, adding that the Binance hack does not represent a “structural trend reversal” for crypto markets.”
SupportedBitfinex analysts said much of the hack’s impact looked priced in and Bitcoin was trading at an attractive level.Cointelegraph.com News: ““Much of the hack’s impact now looks priced in,” with Bitcoin currently trading at an “attractive level,” Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph.”
SupportedBitfinex analysts said confirmation of a market bottom depended on the CPI reading due Nov. 10, which would shape the Fed’s next rate decision, and that higher bond yields would pressure risk assets.Cointelegraph.com News: ““Confirmation of a market bottom now depends on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading due on 10 November, which will shape the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Higher bond yields would put pressure on risk assets.””
SupportedMarket participants priced in an 80% chance of a Fed rate rise at its Dec. 9 meeting, up from 69% a month earlier, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool.Cointelegraph.com News: “Market participants priced in an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its Dec. 9 meeting, up from 69% a month earlier, according to the CMEGroup’s FedWatch tool.”
