Angus Taylor on Tuesday unveiled what he called "the largest cut to immigration in Australian history", as the Coalition seeks to outflank both the government and One Nation on migration.
Taylor's plan would cut net overseas migration (NOM) more deeply than the reductions Peter Dutton proposed ahead of the 2025 election. Dutton had promised to bring NOM to about 160,000 people a year. Taylor's plan takes it further, starting at 100,000 in the first two years of a Coalition government, then rising to 130,000 in year three and 160,000 in year four. The target of 100,000 is below the 130,000 that One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has set as her bottom line.
The policy would reduce the number of temporary visa holders by approximately 650,000. Humanitarian visa places would be cut by half, from Labor's cap of 20,000 a year to 10,000.
Taylor used the announcement to criticise the university sector, suggesting one of Australia's biggest exports sells visa pathways rather than higher education. He has also made room for working holidaymakers needed in agriculture and regional hospitality, meeting demands from Nationals MPs.
But serious questions remain about the feasibility of the cuts. Alan Gamlen, an immigration expert at the Australian National University, said achieving such reductions would be difficult for an incoming government and would certainly create economic losers.
It is unclear how skilled visas, currently demand-driven, could be increased by about 100,000 in selected industries as Taylor proposes. Labor argues the only way to expand uncapped visa numbers would be to allow arrivals without job offers.
Eliminating bridging visas, which migrants often use while awaiting processing for permanent residency or work rights, may prove far more difficult and expensive than Taylor assumes. The plan has fallen flat with business groups and asylum seeker advocates.