ASX set to slide as AI stock sell-off drags Wall Street lower; oil hits highest since May

Global markets retreat on AI industry debt fears and geopolitical tensions

By LineZotpaper
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Updated
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Sources8 outlets
The Australian sharemarket is expected to fall at the open on Friday, following a broad sell-off on Wall Street led by artificial intelligence stocks, while oil prices climbed to their highest level in five months amid uncertainty over the war with Iran. Futures pointed to a loss of 19 points, or 0.2 per cent, for the ASX, after the local bourse lost 0.4 per cent on Thursday.

Global stock markets came under renewed pressure as weakness in AI-related stocks spread from Asia to the United States. The S&P 500 sank 1.3 per cent and the Nasdaq composite fell 2.4 per cent, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a more modest 0.1 per cent decline as gains in non-tech stocks provided some support.

AI industry shares have been shaky on worries that the boom may be threatened by rising borrowing costs to fund data centres and chip purchases, and on concerns that prices have run too high after years of frenzy. Even as companies report growth, investors have punished any sign of disappointment.

Lam Research, which makes equipment for semiconductors, reported slightly stronger-than-expected profit and revenue for the summer, but its shares tumbled 11.1 per cent. The company's forecast for current-quarter profit came in slightly below analysts' expectations, and its stock had already surged 52.4 per cent this year, leaving little room for error.

Meta Platforms lost 7.4 per cent after reporting stronger-than-expected revenue but a profit that fell short. The company also said it is creating a new class of stock to raise money for AI investments. Tesla slipped 2.1 per cent after flipping between gains and losses; its profit beat expectations but revenue was weaker than forecast. Nvidia, the largest stock on Wall Street by value, fell 4.3 per cent. CoreWeave, which borrows to buy Nvidia chips for cloud rental, dropped 9.6 per cent on debt worries.

The sell-off began in Asia, where South Korea's Kospi tumbled 3.5 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 3 per cent and Japan's Nikkei 225 sank 2.7 per cent.

Adding to market jitters was a jump in oil prices. Brent crude rose 2.9 per cent to $US111.99 a barrel, hitting its highest level since May. Prices have yo-yoed between $US97 and $US112 through October as uncertainty over the war with Iran persists.

In Europe, France's CAC 40 fell 1.4 per cent, hurt by a jump in yields on French government bonds amid concerns over the country's debt and budget, compounded by violent protests.

US bond yields fell as investors sought safety. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.98 per cent from 5.13 per cent, a major move, though still well above levels before the war with Iran. The decline came despite data showing fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits, a sign of a solid economy that has helped companies report bigger profits. The majority of stocks within the S&P 500 actually rose on Thursday, but losses in heavily weighted tech stocks dragged the index lower.

Procter & Gamble rose 6.3 per cent after topping profit expectations, with its CEO noting continued geopolitical and economic challenges but reaffirming full-year forecasts for growth in revenue and profit.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Australian investors face another day of losses as global AI stock weakness and rising oil prices weigh on sentiment.
  • The sell-off highlights the fragility of the AI-driven market rally, with high borrowing costs and stretched valuations threatening the sector's momentum.
  • Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical conflict add inflation pressure, complicating central bank rate decisions and increasing costs for consumers and businesses.

Background

Financial markets have been under strain from two directions: the rapid rise of AI stocks that now face scrutiny over debt-funded expansion, and the war with Iran that has pushed oil prices sharply higher. The US bond market has seen yields reach multi-decade highs, reflecting concerns about inflation, strong economic data, and large government debt loads. Against this backdrop, the US stock market had reached a record high earlier in October, but tech shares have become volatile as investors reassess valuations and the sustainability of capital spending.

Key Perspectives

Investors: The shift away from AI stocks suggests a reassessment of risk, with even strong earnings not enough to sustain prices. Many are moving to safer assets like US government bonds, pulling yields lower. AI industry companies: Firms like Lam Research and Meta continue to report revenue growth and invest heavily in AI, but face higher financing costs and the risk that expectations have overshot reality. Geopolitical analysts: The war with Iran remains the dominant factor for oil markets, with no clear timeframe for normalisation. The $97–$112 range reflects uncertainty about supply disruptions and potential escalation.

What to Watch

  • The trajectory of US 10-year Treasury yields: a sustained fall could signal a broader risk-off move; a rise would indicate continued inflation fears.
  • Oil price action: a break above $112 could trigger further market declines, while a drop below $97 would ease pressure.
  • Next week's earnings reports from major US tech companies: their guidance will test whether the AI investment cycle is slowing.

Sources

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 8 supported.

Show each claim
  1. SupportedAI-stock weakness dragged Wall Street lower.WA Today - Latest News: “Drops for stocks in the artificial-intelligence industry are dragging markets down worldwide”
  2. SupportedOil reached its highest level since May.WA Today - Latest News: “oil prices hit their highest levels since May”
  3. Partly supportedGlobal markets retreated on both AI-industry debt fears and geopolitical tensions.WA Today - Latest News: “AI-related stocks on Wall Street have been shaky on worries that their boom may be under threat because of how expensive it’s become to borrow money to build data centres and buy more AI chips.”
  4. SupportedASX futures pointed to a loss of 19 points, or 0.2 per cent, at the open.WA Today - Latest News: “The Australian sharemarket is set to retreat, with futures at 4.55am AEDT pointing to a loss of 19 points, or 0.2 per cent, at the open.”
  5. SupportedThe ASX lost 0.4 per cent on Thursday.WA Today - Latest News: “The ASX lost 0.4 per cent on Thursday.”
  6. SupportedBrent crude rose 2.9 per cent to $US111.99 a barrel.WA Today - Latest News: “The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil rose 2.9 per cent to $US111.99 after touching its highest level in five months.”
  7. Partly supportedViolent protests compounded the factors hurting France’s CAC 40.WA Today - Latest News: “Violent protests across France have raised pressure on the government to increase spending, which could add further to its debt.”
  8. Partly supportedLam Research’s current-quarter profit forecast came in slightly below analysts’ expectations.WA Today - Latest News: “It gave a range for its forecast for profit this quarter whose midpoint was slightly below analysts’ expectations.”
  9. SupportedThe 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.98 per cent from 5.13 per cent.WA Today - Latest News: “The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.98 per cent from 5.13 per cent late Wednesday”
  10. SupportedThe majority of S&P 500 stocks rose on Thursday.WA Today - Latest News: “The majority of stocks within the S&P 500 rose on Thursday”
  11. SupportedProcter & Gamble’s CEO said geopolitical and economic challenges would continue and the company stood by its full-year revenue and profit growth forecasts.WA Today - Latest News: “CEO Shailesh Jejurikar said Procter & Gamble expects “geopolitical and economic challenges” to continue, but it stood by its forecasts for growth in revenue, profit and other measures for the full year.”

Zotpaper

Written by June Katz on the Business & markets desk. Claims checked by Ines Fairley, verification. Edited by Angus Burke, chief sub. Plate by Ollie Flash, picture desk.

4 sources8 of 11 claims matched to a sourcefirst published
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