Auction clearance rate slumps to three-month low as Australian property market slows

Preliminary data shows less than half of auctions successful, with unsold listings surging more than 20% year-on-year

By LineZotpaper
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Australia's auction clearance rate has fallen to its lowest level in three months, with new data showing less than half of homes sold at auction last week and the number of unsold properties rising by more than a fifth over the past year.

The preliminary clearance rate dropped to 48.2 per cent in the past week, its lowest since late June (47.4 per cent) and the second lowest preliminary reading for the year so far, according to property research firm Cotality. The rate has hovered at or below 50 per cent for several months, coinciding with steep declines in property prices and weak market sentiment.

Across the nation's capital cities, 1,223 auctions were held last week, a 12.8 per cent decrease from the previous week and a 47.5 per cent drop compared to the same week a year ago.

Cotality research director Tim Lawless attributed the weak result to long weekends in some states and the Reserve Bank's decision to lift interest rates for the fourth time this year. He also noted the impact of changes in the federal budget, including heavily restricted negative gearing and higher capital gains tax for sellers.

Sydney and Melbourne were the main drag on the national result. Sydney held 304 auctions, down 61 per cent from the week before and 38.5 per cent from a year ago. Melbourne held 670 auctions, a 136 per cent jump from the previous week (the AFL grand final long weekend), but over 12 months auction numbers in Melbourne have dropped 45.6 per cent, the largest decline of any capital city.

Separate data from SQM Research shows some homes are sitting unsold for as long as six months. Listings that have been on the market for more than 180 days increased by 10.5 per cent compared to a year ago, indicating that older stock is clogging the market.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Home sellers face a tougher market with fewer successful auctions and longer selling times, potentially forcing price reductions.
  • Buyers may gain more bargaining power as unsold listings pile up and clearance rates remain weak.
  • The sustained slowdown suggests broader economic headwinds from rising interest rates and federal tax changes are reshaping the housing market.

Background

Australia's housing market has been cooling for several months as the Reserve Bank continues to lift the cash rate to curb inflation. The federal budget introduced changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax that have added uncertainty for property investors. Auction clearance rates are a closely watched indicator of market health; a rate consistently below 50 per cent typically signals a buyer's market.

Key Perspectives

Home sellers and real estate agents: Lower clearance rates and longer selling times mean properties are harder to move, often requiring price adjustments or withdrawal from the market. Home buyers: With more stock available and less competition at auction, buyers may have more choice and room to negotiate. Property investors: The combination of higher borrowing costs and less favourable tax treatment reduces incentives for investment, contributing to weaker demand.

What to Watch

  • Next month's preliminary and final clearance rate data for signs of further deterioration or stabilisation.
  • The Reserve Bank's next interest rate decision and any forward guidance on the rate cycle.
  • Whether the federal government introduces any additional housing market measures in response to the slowdown.

Sources

Zotpaper

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