Australian industry to rely on gas for 'foreseeable future', resources minister says

Madeleine King defends gas reservation scheme as a way to push down power prices, without giving a price forecast or timeline for relief

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Resources minister Madeleine King has told the National Press Club that Australian industry will remain reliant on gas for the foreseeable future, and has defended the national gas reservation scheme as a measure that will push down power prices. She stopped short of putting a price tag on gas under the proposal or predicting when households and businesses would see financial relief.

Speaking at the National Press Club on Wednesday, King said keeping gas affordable for households and businesses was a critical part of the scheme's primary focus.

"The truth is, it's hard to establish a date because we don't yet have the replacement for some of the industries that will need it," she said. "Right now, there is no replacement for gas. I am totally supportive of any kind of research or development that finds a replacement, whether it's just in lower emissions or alternative. But right now, and for the foreseeable future, that does not exist."

The national gas reservation scheme, expected to take effect from January 2028, will force gas companies to set aside 20% of exports for domestic use. It gives the Australian Energy Regulator the power to force companies to meet a target of 110% of projected demand each year, limits ministerial discretion and replaces the Turnbull-era domestic gas security mechanism.

King said the modest oversupply created by the reservation would put downward pressure on prices. "We expect the oversupply part of the reservation to put that modest oversupply into the system, which will push down those prices," she said.

The minister argued gas was central to heating homes, keeping manufacturing industries running, processing critical minerals and rare earths domestically, and supporting the rollout of renewables.

However, she did not put a price tag on the cost of gas under the proposal, as the former opposition leader Peter Dutton once did, nor predict when households and businesses would start to see that financial relief.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The minister's comments confirm the federal government expects gas to underpin the economy well beyond the scheme's 2028 start, with no replacement currently available.
  • The reservation scheme is a structural change to the gas market: exporters must set aside 20% of shipments for domestic use, with the regulator empowered to enforce a 110% demand target.
  • Households and businesses are waiting on the promised downward pressure on power prices, but the minister gave no timeline or price forecast.

Background

The national gas reservation scheme is the federal government's response to a long-running debate in Australia over gas supply and pricing, in which domestic users have argued that a market shaped by large export projects leaves local manufacturers and households paying more. The scheme, expected to take effect from January 2028, forces producers to reserve a share of gas for the local market, and replaces the domestic gas security mechanism introduced under the Turnbull government. King's press club address was an effort to explain the policy and manage expectations about when benefits will flow.

Key Perspectives

Government and the minister: Gas remains essential because no viable replacement exists, and the scheme's modest oversupply is intended to push prices down. King supports research into lower-emissions alternatives but will not abandon gas in the interim.

Gas producers and exporters: The scheme imposes a significant new obligation on exporters, requiring 20% of shipments to be set aside for domestic use while the regulator enforces target volumes. Industry is also central to the government's plans for manufacturing and critical minerals processing.

Sceptics and the opposition: The minister, unlike former opposition leader Peter Dutton, offered no price figure and no date for when relief would arrive, leaving sceptics with little to measure the scheme's success against.

What to Watch

  • Whether the government releases a price forecast or a date for when the promised downward pressure on power prices will be felt.
  • Progress on the scheme ahead of its expected start in January 2028, including how the regulator's power to enforce the 110% demand target is applied.
  • Any developments in lower-emissions alternatives or replacements for gas, which King said do not yet exist.

Sources

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