Both major parties, along with One Nation, have laid out competing plans to reduce immigration levels. Labor has committed to a Nom target of 245,000 for the current financial year and 225,000 in 2027-28, achieved through a combination of prioritising in-demand skills and slowing less critical visa applications, including stretching working holidaymaker wait times to three months and restricting student visa hopping.
Coalition opposition leader Angus Taylor this week announced a more ambitious plan to more than halve Labor's forecast, targeting a Nom of 100,000 for the first two years from 2028-29, before rising to 130,000 in the third year and 160,000 by 2031-32. Taylor described it as the biggest cut to immigration in Australian history. To achieve this, the Coalition would slash bridging and protection visas from more than 400,000 to 20,000 over four years, and cut temporary graduate visas to 10,000.
One Nation has outlined a plan to reduce temporary visa holders by 750,000, with a student visa cap of 115,000 annually and a Nom ceiling of 130,000 after three years. The Greens have rejected setting a specific Nom target, with leader David Shoebridge saying the focus on the figure is misguided, noting that other parties have been "chopping and changing their number over the past 18 months as soon as serious scrutiny is applied."
Former senior immigration official Abul Rizvi said achieving the targets is not guaranteed. He noted Labor has a chance if it maintains high refusal rates, but questioned whether the Coalition's drastic cut could be implemented without unintended consequences. The Nom figure, which measures long-term arrivals minus departures, has fallen to 292,000 in the year to March, from 299,000 in December, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.