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China stockpiled 343 advanced chipmaking tools, report finds, as export control debate intensifies

Washington-based think tank says Chinese fabs own hundreds of immersion DUV scanners that could be repurposed for 7nm-class production

By LineZotpaper
Published
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Chinese chipmakers have accumulated an estimated 343 immersion DUV lithography tools from ASML since 2012, many capable of producing 7nm-class chips, according to a report from the Centre for Technology and Statecraft, a Washington-based research group. The finding underscores the limits of existing export controls and has renewed calls for stricter regulations on semiconductor equipment sales to China.

A report from the Centre for Technology and Statecraft (CTS) has quantified the scale of Chinese stockpiling of advanced lithography equipment. The Washington-based group estimates that Chinese logic and memory fabs now own 343 immersion deep-ultraviolet (DUV) scanners imported from Dutch manufacturer ASML, excluding tools held by multinational facilities operating in China. The report says 270 of those are ASML's Twinscan NXT:1980i scanners, which offer a 2.5nm overlay accuracy suitable for multipatterning at 7nm-class nodes. A further 22 NXT:2050i and six NXT:2000i systems are also in Chinese hands.

The Dutch government introduced licensing requirements for the most capable NXT:2000i and above immersion DUV tools in September 2023, effectively blocking their export to China. In response, Chinese buyers shifted to the less advanced NXT:1980i model. CTS estimates that Chinese fabs purchased approximately 90 NXT:1980i scanners in 2024 and 89 in 2025, spending more than $13 billion over the two years. Export controls were expanded to the NXT:1980i in September 2024, but individual shipments can still receive approval.

ASML's own financial reports reflect the surge: China accounted for 41% of ASML's net system sales by destination in 2024 and 33% in 2025. That share fell to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second quarter, a decline the company had previously warned of as tightening controls and customer behavior shifted.

The CTS report argues that existing controls leave a gap because equipment originally acquired for less advanced nodes can be reassigned to 7nm-class production at additional cost. The report's authors propose prohibiting all immersion DUV exports to China and restricting replacement parts and maintenance services for machines at advanced fabs, a position consistent with the bipartisan MATCH Act introduced in April 2026.

It is unclear how many of the 296 advanced immersion DUV scanners shipped to China are currently operational. The report notes that while the total number of ArFi tools seems plausible, some other estimates appear questionable.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The stockpile could allow China to sustain advanced chip production (7nm class) despite losing access to the latest EUV tools, potentially narrowing the technology gap with Taiwan and South Korea.
  • Export controls are a key policy tool in the US-led effort to limit China's semiconductor progress; this report suggests existing measures have significant loopholes.
  • The large spending on older equipment indicates China is investing heavily to build self-sufficiency even at higher cost and lower efficiency.

Background

Semiconductor lithography tools are essential for printing circuitry onto wafers. ASML dominates the market for high-end DUV and the more advanced EUV scanners. The US has imposed escalating export restrictions on chipmaking equipment to China since 2022, arguing that advanced chips could be used for military applications. The Dutch government, as ASML's home country, has aligned with US-led controls but has been cautious about fully cutting off sales. China's domestic chip industry, led by firms like SMIC, has pushed forward with older equipment and multipatterning techniques to reach 7nm production.

Key Perspectives

Proponents of stricter controls: The MATCH Act sponsors and experts like those at CTS argue that closing the immersion DUV loophole is necessary to prevent China from mass-producing advanced chips. They stress that maintenance and spare-part restrictions are as important as new sales bans. China's semiconductor industry: Chinese firms are likely to argue they are building legitimate commercial capacity and that export controls violate global trade norms. They have signaled willingness to pay premium prices for available equipment and to accelerate domestic tool development. Critics of the policy approach: Some analysts question whether retrospective controls on installed machines are enforceable, and note that cutting off service could push China to reverse-engineer ASML technology faster, potentially damaging Dutch interests.

What to Watch

  • Whether the Netherlands tightens export rules further to cover all immersion DUV models and maintenance services.
  • The pace of ASML's China sales decline in upcoming quarterly reports.
  • Any signals of progress in China's homegrown lithography efforts, such as tools from Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE).

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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