Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to host US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a rare trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen this month. The meeting, which would be historic but potentially unnerving for Washington's allies, was proposed by Putin and Trump has expressed openness, leaving Xi to decide. China's foreign ministry has confirmed discussions are under way, and a Chinese scholar advising the ministry described it as 'very likely to happen.'
The meeting is expected during the November 18-19 APEC summit in Shenzhen, where the three leaders would sit down together. Xi has been on a diplomatic gallop this year, projecting China as a stable superpower and partner to an array of world leaders. The meeting could help burnish Beijing's self-styled image as a global peacemaker, although Beijing is wary of being cast as a great power carving up spheres of influence around a negotiating table.
Chinese scholars offered mixed assessments of what a domestically weakened Trump might mean for relations. Wu Xinbo, director of the Centre for American Studies at Shanghai's Fudan University, said the meeting 'shows the convening power of China's diplomacy.' Zhao Minghao, also of Fudan, argued that Trump's incentive to seek a political legacy through diplomacy could create space for stabilising China-US relations. Taiwan is the most volatile pressure point, and Beijing identifies it as its reddest of red lines. George Chen of The Asia Group consultancy wrote, 'If Congress chooses to become more assertive on Taiwan, Beijing will eventually face a difficult choice: absorb those political signals in the interest of preserving broader stability, or respond forcefully and risk undermining that stability itself.'
The agenda could be unruly, spanning the Ukraine war, Iran war and trade. Trump may again appeal to Beijing to help secure a way out of Iran, while Putin wants a way out of Ukraine. Trump wants to talk about denuclearisation and could seek Putin and Xi's support in teeing up a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky is concerned. The meeting may prove little more than a photo op that benefits Xi the most and Trump the least, a scenario US allies may see as the best-case outcome.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- A trilateral summit among the US, China and Russia would be the first of its kind in years and could reshape the global diplomatic landscape, particularly if it leads to deals on Ukraine, Iran or trade.
- For US allies, the meeting raises fears that Trump may make concessions to authoritarian rivals without allied input, potentially undermining longstanding alliances.
- The outcome could affect the trajectory of the Ukraine war, US-China tensions over Taiwan, and the global balance of power.
Background
The three leaders have met bilaterally in various settings but never together. Trump has frequently expressed admiration for both Xi and Putin, while Xi has sought to project China as a mediator. The Republican Party's poor showing in the midterms has weakened Trump politically at home, potentially increasing his willingness to seek foreign policy achievements. China is preparing to host the APEC summit in Shenzhen, a city in southern China known for its role as a technology and manufacturing hub.
Key Perspectives
Wu Xinbo (Fudan University): The meeting is very likely and demonstrates China's diplomatic convening power.
Zhao Minghao (Fudan University): Trump's incentive to build a legacy through diplomacy could create room to stabilise China-US relations, even with a Democratic Congress pushing on Taiwan.
George Chen (The Asia Group): Congress could become the biggest source of instability by asserting itself on Taiwan, forcing Beijing to choose between absorbing the pressure or responding forcefully.
Volodymyr Zelensky (Ukraine): Expressed concern about the meeting and its potential implications for Ukraine.
What to Watch
- Whether Xi agrees to host the meeting; final confirmation is expected closer to the APEC summit.
- The specific outcomes of any discussion, especially any framework for ending the Ukraine war or defusing Iran tensions.
- How the US Congress responds, particularly on Taiwan arms sales and diplomacy, which could escalate tensions regardless of the meeting's outcome.