Big four banks expected to pass on RBA rate rise, Macquarie leads the way

Quarter-point increase adds $122 to monthly repayments on $800,000 mortgage

By LineZotpaper
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Sources6 outlets
Australia's big four banks are expected to follow Macquarie and pass on the Reserve Bank's quarter-percentage-point rate rise to homeowners, adding $122 in monthly repayments on a standard $800,000 mortgage. The increase, which takes the cash rate to 4.6 per cent, adds to borrowers' pain following three rate rises earlier this year.

Macquarie Bank, the nation's fifth-largest home lender, announced on Tuesday it would pass on the central bank's 25-basis-point increase in full, with the change taking effect from October 15. Savers with deposits in many of the bank's accounts will receive the same increase.

"For any customers concerned about making their home loan repayments, we encourage them to get in touch, as financial assistance may be available," said Macquarie personal banking chief Ben Perham.

Head of Australian bank research at UBS, John Storey, said it was all but inevitable that the big banks would follow suit. "I think it's a fait accompli, unfortunately," Storey said.

While the rate rise will bite for mortgage holders, federal data shows the nation's total offset account balances remain near record highs. Data released by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority on September 17 shows that for the quarter ending in June, Australian offset balances stood at $340 billion. That is up about $39 billion on the same period a year before, but down from $349 billion recorded in the March quarter of 2026.

Spending and labour market resilience has played into the Reserve Bank's thinking on rates to date and, some analysts expect, could support the case for further rate rises that could exacerbate early signs of stress in parts of the economy.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Australian mortgage holders face rising repayments as four rate increases in 2026 lift the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent.
  • The latest quarter-point rise adds $122 per month to an $800,000 mortgage, squeezing household budgets amid persistent cost-of-living pressures.
  • Offset account balances, while still high, have fallen from their peak, suggesting some households are drawing down savings to cope.

Background

The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates four times in 2026, with the latest increase pushing the cash rate to 4.6 per cent, the highest level in 15 years. Macquarie Bank, as the fifth-largest home lender, moved first to pass on the full increase, and the big four banks are widely expected to follow. The APRA data on offset accounts shows the aggregate cushion remains substantial but has started to decline from the March quarter peak.

Key Perspectives

Homeowners: Face higher monthly repayments on variable-rate mortgages, but aggregate offset balances and low overdue loan rates suggest many households have built buffers during the pandemic. Banks: Expected to pass on the full rate rise to variable-rate borrowers, while also increasing rates on some savings accounts. Macquarie has set a precedent. Analysts and economists: UBS's John Storey sees the pass-through as inevitable. Some analysts warn that spending and labour market resilience could justify further hikes, raising risks for more vulnerable parts of the economy.

What to Watch

  • Whether the big four banks (CBA, Westpac, NAB, ANZ) announce full pass-through in the coming days.
  • The next RBA meeting for any signals of further rate rises, with analysts watching labour market and spending data.
  • APRA's quarterly data on overdue home loans and offset account balances for signs of growing household stress.

Sources

Zotpaper

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