Friday 16 October 2026
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TAB faces 'wipeout' of up to $5m at Everest Day, senior trader warns

Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow firm into short prices after Pride Of Jenni scratching reshapes the Randwick card

By LineZotpaper
Published
Updated
Read Time2 min
Sources4 outlets
TAB senior trader Tim Ryan has warned the bookmaker faces a multimillion-dollar "wipeout" at Saturday's Everest Day at Randwick, saying the two most-backed runners on the program could cost the TAB up to $5 million if both salute.

Ka Ying Rising, the Hong Kong superstar, remains the $1.50 favourite to defend his title in the $20 million Everest, while Autumn Glow has firmed into $1.28 for the five-horse King Charles III Stakes after Pride Of Jenni was scratched with a leg infection.

Ryan said the popular "Ka Ying Rising into Autumn Glow" multi was already costing the TAB nearly $1 million, a figure he expected to grow. "Ka Ying Rising is best backed, Autumn Glow is second best, then it's daylight third," he said.

The scratching of Pride Of Jenni, he said, had changed the shape of the King Charles. "I am so flat about that, almost devastated," Ryan said. "I thought she was a risk, Autumn Glow, with a Pride Of Jenni in the race, a strong-run mile on a testing track. It would play into Ceolwulf's hands. Now, it's probably going to be a jog-trot."

Asked what the loss would be if both favourites won, Ryan replied: "Wipeout." He said the bookmaker planned to "lean into" the most backed runners. "It might cost us four or five million."

Ka Ying Rising opened at $2.10 for the Everest after winning last year's race by a length and a quarter. He was as low as $1.30 before easing after a trial loss to Everest rival Ninja, with Randwick receiving close to 100mm of rain this week. The six-year-old has won 22 of 24 starts and more than $30 million in prizemoney, but is untested on heavy tracks.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Saturday's Everest Day features two of Australia's richest races, and a two-favourite result would trigger one of the TAB's largest single-day payouts.
  • The scratching of Pride Of Jenni has reduced the King Charles III Stakes to five runners and pushed Autumn Glow to an extremely short quote.
  • A senior bookmaker publicly forecasting a "wipeout" while continuing to accept bets is a notable signal of how strongly the market believes in both favourites.

Background

The Everest is a $20 million sprint run at Randwick during the Sydney spring carnival, and it was won last year by Ka Ying Rising by a length and a quarter. The King Charles III Stakes, worth $5 million, lost its most significant challenger when Pride Of Jenni was scratched because of a leg infection, leaving Autumn Glow as a heavily backed favourite. Heavy rain through the week has left Randwick with a testing track and close to 100mm of precipitation.

Key Perspectives

[TAB and bookmakers]: Tim Ryan believes both favourites are hard to beat and the TAB is facing a $4-5 million loss. The bookmaker intends to keep taking bets on the popular runners rather than shortening them out. [Punters]: Heavy support for Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow, including a widely held multi linking the pair, has driven both horses into short prices and left the TAB holding nearly $1 million on that combination alone. [Racing sceptics]: Ka Ying Rising is untested on heavy tracks, lost a recent trial to Everest rival Ninja, and has eased from $1.30 after the rain, leaving some room for those prepared to take on the favourite.

What to Watch

  • The track rating at Randwick on Saturday and how Ka Ying Rising handles heavy ground for the first time.
  • Whether TAB's exposure continues to grow as betting closes on the two features.
  • The results of both races: if the favourites win, the predicted multi-million dollar payout eventuates; an upset in either would ease the blow considerably.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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