CBA chief says November rate rise 'live' possibility, housing market expected to bounce back

Comyn comments on RBA path, cost-of-living pressures and productivity as inflation data looms

By LineZotpaper
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Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn says the Reserve Bank has likely finished raising interest rates for now, but the board's November meeting is a 'live' possibility for another rise, dependent on quarterly inflation figures due at the end of October. Speaking with the ABC, Mr Comyn highlighted the growing burden on households and businesses from higher borrowing costs, while expressing optimism that Australia's falling housing prices would recover once rates eventually ease.

Mr Comyn said the September rate hike was necessary because of rising inflationary pressures from global forces such as the Middle East conflict and fuel price rises. However, he noted that customers are feeling the increasing burden from higher rates, with the bank seeing a growing proportion of customers requiring financial assistance or struggling to meet repayments.

"We believe that's the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live," he said.

Cost-of-living pressures are affecting different cohorts of CBA customers in different ways. Mr Comyn said the bank is seeing a reduction in spending and savings among those exposed to higher borrowing costs and mortgages. Some business subsectors are also beginning to feel the pressure from weaker consumer and household demand.

More positively, the bank recorded 13 per cent growth in business lending across the 2026 financial year. Doubtful debts remain low and "well below where you would expect the average to be", largely due to continued low unemployment.

On housing, Mr Comyn predicted that property prices, which are forecast to fall about 10 per cent this year, will bounce back if interest rates decline next year as expected. He attributed the likely recovery to strong demand and a "structural undersupply of housing".

"The biggest issue over the long term is our inability to grow productivity in terms of the production of housing," he said.

Mr Comyn also added his voice to calls for boosting Australia's productivity, arguing that a 3 per cent rate compared to 2 per cent makes "a really big difference" to living standards. He identified housing, low-cost energy, skills, migration and technological advances including AI as key to achieving this.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • A further rate rise in November would deepen cost-of-living pressures on mortgage holders and small businesses, directly affecting household budgets and spending patterns across the economy.
  • The RBA's decision hinges on the next inflation print, making that data release a critical moment for borrowers, banks and policymakers.
  • Mr Comyn's comments signal that Australia's largest bank sees a peak in rates as near, but not certain, and expects the housing downturn to be temporary if rates ease next year.

Background

The Reserve Bank of Australia has been raising interest rates to combat inflation, with the most recent increase coming in September. The board's final scheduled meeting for 2026 takes place in November. CBA, as the country's largest lender, is closely watched for signals on the economic outlook and credit conditions. Unemployment remains low, but households are facing stretched budgets as borrowing costs rise.

Key Perspectives

Homeowners and mortgage holders: Face higher repayments and reduced savings, with some already seeking financial assistance from their bank. Businesses: Some sectors report falling demand as households cut spending, though business lending has grown. Prospective homebuyers: Falling house prices may improve affordability in the near term, but a rebound is expected once rates decline. CBA: Sees a normalising risk environment with low bad debts, but is closely monitoring customer stress and the impact on its loan book.

What to Watch

  • Release of quarterly inflation data at the end of October, which will guide the RBA's November decision.
  • The RBA's November board meeting for any further rate movement.
  • Property price data in coming months to see if the predicted 10 per cent decline materialises and how quickly a recovery could develop if rates are cut in 2027.

Sources

Zotpaper

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