Australian children who grow up in poverty face more than five times the risk of poverty in early adulthood compared with the study’s reference group, according to new research published in The Economic Record. Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, the study found 27 per cent of children who grew up below the poverty line were living in poverty in their 20s and early 30s, compared with just 5 per cent of those whose families had incomes between 150 and 200 per cent of the poverty line.
The researchers, affiliated with the University of Melbourne and Melbourne Institute, examined 2,205 people whose childhood household incomes were observed over at least three years and whose incomes were known at least once again from age 24.
The study defined poverty using a relative income measure, commonly used internationally, which adjusts household disposable income after taxes and benefits for household size. In dollar terms, the poverty line was about $72,000 for a couple with two children and $55,000 for a single parent with two children.
Children from families in near-poverty, with incomes between 100 and 150 per cent of the poverty line, also faced an elevated risk, 8.7 percentage points higher than the reference group. However, no statistically significant difference was found between children from families just below the median income and those from higher-earning households.
The study also highlighted children in single-parent families. According to 2026 ACOSS–UNSW research, 37 per cent of children in sole-parent households were living in poverty in 2022-23, compared with 11 per cent in couple families. The researchers described it as a double whammy: low-income single-parent families face compounding pressures, including financial pressures and one parent carrying out all the unpaid work of childcare and household tasks.
A separate survey of 2,590 Australian single parents, mostly mothers, found that 78 per cent spent 'a lot' or 'almost all' of their time worrying about or planning for the family's finances. 'I need more money. The financial stress feels untenable,' one respondent said.
The study examined several potential pathways, including education, employment, partnering and health. Even after accounting for these factors, the association between childhood poverty and early-adulthood poverty remained substantial, the researchers said.
The authors noted the 2023 increase in the age cutoff for the Parenting Payment (Single), which extended support until the youngest child turns 14 and was expected to help at least 57,000 primary carers, 91 per cent of them women. They called for further action, including targeted increases to Family Tax Benefit Part A, and for more long-term studies to track the effectiveness of such policies.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- For Australian families: The findings show that childhood poverty is not just a temporary hardship but has long-lasting effects into adulthood, trapping families in cycles of disadvantage.
- For policymakers: The study supports arguments for direct financial support to low-income families, especially single parents, as a means to reduce intergenerational poverty.
- For the economy: With one in six children living in poverty, the long-term economic costs of lost potential and increased welfare dependence are significant.
Background
Australia has no official poverty line; researchers commonly use a relative income measure set at 50% of median household income. The most recent ACOSS-UNSW report found about 757,000 children under 15 lived in poverty in 2022-23, or one in six. Single-parent families are particularly vulnerable: 37% of children in those families were poor, compared with 11% in couple families, according to the same data. The HILDA Survey has tracked Australian households since 2001 and is a key source for studying economic dynamics. The study's findings are based on data from that survey, focusing on 2,205 individuals.
What to Watch
- The Australian government's response: Whether the Treasury and social services ministries will consider the study's recommendations for increasing Family Tax Benefit Part A.
- Future long-term studies: The authors call for more longitudinal research to identify factors that help children escape poverty.
- The impact of the 2023 Parenting Payment extension: Researchers will likely track whether this policy change reduces poverty persistence for single-parent families over time.
Checked
11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 8 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedChildhood poverty is linked to a fivefold risk of poverty in early adulthood.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “That’s more than five times the risk.”
- SupportedChildren who grew up below the poverty line had more than five times the risk of early-adult poverty compared with the study’s reference group.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “What this means is that Australians who grow up poor face a 27% risk of being in poverty in early adulthood, in contrast to just 5% in the reference group. That’s more than five times the risk.”
- SupportedThe study found poverty rates of 27% for those who grew up below the poverty line and 5% for the reference group.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “Australians who grow up poor face a 27% risk of being in poverty in early adulthood, in contrast to just 5% in the reference group.”
- SupportedA respondent said, “I need more money. The financial stress feels untenable.”Business + Economy – The Conversation: “As one respondent said: I need more money. The financial stress feels untenable.”
- Not in the sourcesThe researchers are affiliated with the University of Melbourne and Melbourne Institute.
- SupportedThe study examined 2,205 people whose childhood household incomes were observed for at least three years and whose incomes were known again from age 24.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “We examined 2,205 people whose childhood household incomes were observed in at least three years, and whose incomes were known at least once again from age 24.”
- SupportedChildren from near-poor families had an early-adult poverty risk 8.7 percentage points higher than the reference group.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “They also had a higher poverty rate in early-adulthood: 8.7 percentage points higher than children from the reference group.”
- SupportedThere was no statistically significant difference between the group just below the median and children from higher-income households.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “By contrast, we found no statistically significant differences in early adulthood poverty between the income group just below the median and those who grew up in households with higher incomes.”
- SupportedIn 2022–23, 37% of children in sole-parent households were in poverty, compared with 11% in couple families.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “According to 2026 ACOSS–UNSW research, 37% of children in sole-parent families were living in poverty in 2022–23, compared with 11% of children in partnered families.”
- Partly supportedA survey of 2,590 Australian single parents, mostly mothers, found that 78% spent “a lot” or “almost all” of their time worrying about or planning for family finances.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “In August 2025, Swinburne University researchers surveyed 2,590 Australian single parents, who were mostly women. They found almost four out of five single mothers (78%) spent “a lot” or “almost all” of their time worrying about or planning for their family’s financial wellbeing.”
- Partly supportedThe 2023 Parenting Payment (Single) change was expected to help at least 57,000 primary carers, 91% of them women.Business + Economy – The Conversation: “That change was expected to help at least 57,000 single primary carers, who were mostly women (91%).”