China's birth rate continues to decline despite the government's relaxation of the one-child policy in 2015 and expansion to three children in 2021, as social and structural pressures—particularly on women—outweigh policy incentives. New analysis reveals that pregnancy, childbirth, and postpartum care, along with career costs, are key factors keeping families from having more than one child.
Fertility has fallen sharply in China, especially since 2017, making it one of the steepest declines globally. During the one-child policy era (1979–2015), many couples still had close to two children, but now that the government encourages larger families, the average couple has only one.
Commentary on the issue has often focused on cost. China is the second-most expensive country in the world to raise a child, according to a study cited by The Guardian, with the biggest expenses tied to education. A 2021 government ban on private K-12 tutoring aimed to reduce costs but instead created a gray market where parents pay even more.
However, conversations with Chinese parents reveal that pregnancy, childbirth, and postpartum care are major reasons for stopping at one child. While China has generous, universal maternity leave on paper, weak enforcement and widespread informal employment mean many women—particularly those without a college degree—cannot take it. Even urban, professional women face a real risk of being replaced or sidelined in their careers after having children. Gender discrimination is illegal, but firms regularly circumvent the law.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- China's demographic decline threatens long-term economic growth, labor supply, and pension system sustainability.
- The failure of pronatalist policies to boost birth rates highlights deeper structural issues, particularly for women, that simple policy changes cannot fix.
- The trend could reshape global economic dynamics, as China's workforce shrinks and its consumer market evolves.
Background
China's birth rate is among the lowest in the world, a sharp reversal from decades of rapid population growth. The one-child policy, in effect from 1979 to 2015, was relaxed first to two children and then to three in 2021, but births have not responded. The government has tried various measures, including banning private tutoring, to reduce the cost of raising children, but these have had limited impact. Social and workplace factors, particularly for women, continue to suppress fertility rates.
Key Perspectives
Chinese parents: Experience high costs for children, especially for education, and for women, significant career risks from taking maternity leave or prioritizing family. Many choose only one child to manage these pressures.
Chinese government: Has loosened restrictions to encourage more births but has not effectively addressed underlying structural and cultural barriers, such as workplace discrimination and enforcement of leave policies.
Critics: Argue that without strong enforcement of maternity and paternity leave laws, and without addressing informal employment, policy changes will remain ineffective.
What to Watch
- Whether China enacts stronger enforcement of parental leave laws or introduces new financial incentives for families.
- Birth rate data for 2026 and 2027 to see if any policy changes have an effect.
- Growth of the informal tutoring gray market and its impact on family budgets.