Premier David Crisafulli has said his government has demonstrated it is working effectively for voters two years into its four-year term, as polling showed One Nation three percentage points behind Labor.
Federal Nationals leader Matt Canavan, who lives in the Rockhampton-based seat, confirmed on Monday a bid to switch from the Senate to the lower house, setting up a showdown with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Asked shortly after the announcement whether the move could offer his own MPs a blueprint for countering One Nation at the 2028 Queensland election, Crisafulli talked around the question, telling reporters in Hervey Bay: "What we're doing in Queensland I hope shows what a good, united, disciplined government looks like."
"Our focus is always on making sure that there's a future for agriculture and tourism and mining, and new opportunities in advanced medical research and education," he said, adding that he wanted people moving to the state and able to afford a home. Crisafulli, two years into a four-year term, said he was banking on voters believing his government had demonstrated integrity, adding: "We're doing everything we said we would do, and I just hope in some way that maybe that's something that people will look at."
Polling by Resolve Political Monitor published in October put the LNP on 32 per cent, Labor on 24 per cent and One Nation on 21 per cent on primary votes, leaving One Nation three percentage points behind Labor. Among women, One Nation narrowly outperformed Labor and was nine percentage points behind the LNP, despite having no leader in the state or sitting members of parliament.
As One Nation has surged in polls across Australia, Queensland Labor has sought to frame the party as an extension of the LNP. Labor leader Steven Miles told the party's annual conference earlier this year: "The next election will be a fight between Labor and a far-right coalition of the LNP and One Nation swapping preferences and hoping to govern together."
At the time, Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie ruled out a potential preference deal or coalition with One Nation, saying he believed the LNP could expand its majority at the next state election.
The party's rise has also raised questions about whether Crisafulli will walk away from his promise to reintroduce optional preferential voting, given that One Nation could take more votes from the LNP than the Greens could take from Labor. He has said this will not happen.
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Primary vote intention in Queensland, October 2024
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Source: Resolve Political Monitor
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The 2028 Queensland election is shaping as a three-way contest, with One Nation three percentage points behind Labor on primary votes and competitive among women despite having no state leader or sitting MPs.
The federal LNP is treating One Nation as a serious threat to its regional vote by running its own leader against the party in Capricornia, a race that may offer a template for how the state LNP counters One Nation.
Whether Crisafulli keeps his promise to reintroduce optional preferential voting could change how preferences flow in a contest in which One Nation and the LNP compete for the same voters.
Background
Crisafulli led the LNP to government at the 2024 Queensland election, and his government is two years into a four-year term. Queensland previously used optional preferential voting before moving to a compulsory system, a change the LNP has promised to reverse. One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has been a recurring force in Queensland politics and has revived in national polls.
Key Perspectives
David Crisafulli, Premier and LNP state leader: says his government is doing everything it promised and hopes Queenslanders will see it as "a good, united, disciplined government".
Steven Miles, Labor leader: says the next election will be "a fight between Labor and a far-right coalition of the LNP and One Nation swapping preferences and hoping to govern together".
Jarrod Bleijie, Deputy Premier: rules out any preference deal or coalition with One Nation and believes the LNP can expand its majority at the next state election.
What to Watch
Whether Canavan's Capricornia campaign holds the seat against One Nation, and whether the LNP adopts the approach as its model for the Queensland regions.
Whether Crisafulli proceeds with reintroducing optional preferential voting as One Nation's support grows, and how any change would affect preference flows.
Whether One Nation converts its polling support, including among women, into candidates and seats at the 2028 Queensland election.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
SupportedCrisafulli makes a re-election case against One Nation in Queensland regions.WA Today - Latest News: “Crisafulli makes case for re-election against One Nation in Queensland regions.”
SupportedFederal Nationals leader Matt Canavan confirmed a bid to move from the Senate to the lower house.WA Today - Latest News: “On Monday federal Nationals leader Matt Canavan confirmed a bid to switch from the Senate to the lower house”
SupportedCanavan’s bid sets up a showdown with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.WA Today - Latest News: “setting up a showdown with Pauline Hanson’s insurgent populist party in the Rockhampton-based seat of Capricornia where he lives.”
SupportedCrisafulli said his government had demonstrated it was working effectively for voters two years into its four-year term.WA Today - Latest News: “state leader David Crisafulli says his government has demonstrated it is working effectively on behalf of voters two years into its four-year term.”
SupportedThe October poll put the LNP on 32 per cent, Labor on 24 per cent and One Nation on 21 per cent, three points behind Labor.WA Today - Latest News: “Polling conducted exclusively for this masthead and published in October showed One Nation just three percentage points behind Labor on primary votes, with the government on 32 per cent, opposition on 24 per cent, and Hanson’s party on 21 per cent.”
SupportedCrisafulli told reporters in Hervey Bay, “What we're doing in Queensland I hope shows what a good, united, disciplined government looks like.”WA Today - Latest News: ““What we’re doing in Queensland I hope shows what a good, united, disciplined government looks like,” he told reporters in Hervey Bay.”
SupportedCrisafulli said, “Our focus is always on making sure that there's a future for agriculture and tourism and mining, and new opportunities in advanced medical research and education.”WA Today - Latest News: ““Our focus is always on making sure that there’s a future for agriculture and tourism and mining, and new opportunities in advanced medical research and education.”
SupportedCrisafulli said, “We're doing everything we said we would do, and I just hope in some way that maybe that's something that people will look at.”WA Today - Latest News: ““We’re doing everything we said we would do, and I just hope in some way that maybe that’s something that people will look at,” the premier said.”
Partly supportedCrisafulli was banking on voters believing his government had demonstrated integrity.WA Today - Latest News: “Crisafulli added on Monday he was banking on voters believing he and his government had demonstrated integrity during their first term.”
SupportedAmong women, One Nation narrowly outperformed Labor and was nine percentage points behind the LNP, despite having no state leader or sitting MPs.WA Today - Latest News: “Among women, One Nation narrowly outperformed Labor and was nine percentage points behind the LNP, despite having no leader in the state, or existing members of parliament.”
SupportedSteven Miles said the next election would be “a fight between Labor and a far-right coalition of the LNP and One Nation swapping preferences and hoping to govern together.”WA Today - Latest News: ““The next election will be a fight between Labor and a far-right coalition of the LNP and One Nation swapping preferences and hoping to govern together,” leader and former premier Steven Miles told the party’s annual conference earlier this year.”
SupportedCrisafulli has said he will not walk away from his promise to reintroduce optional preferential voting.WA Today - Latest News: “The rise of One Nation has also led some to question if Crisafulli will walk away from his promise to reintroduce optional preferential voting – as One Nation could take more votes from his party more than the Greens could take from Labor – though he has said this will not happen.”