Wednesday 14 October 2026
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Australia

DemosAU MRP poll predicts Labor majority in House despite low primary vote

Labor projected to win 84 of 150 seats on 27% primary vote; One Nation slumps from 60 to 24 seats

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
A new DemosAU MRP poll projects Labor would win a clear majority of House of Representatives seats if a federal election were held now, despite receiving only 27% of the national primary vote. The poll, conducted for Capital Brief from August 4 to September 19 with a sample of 9,740, shows Labor winning 84 of the 150 seats, well over the 76 needed for a majority. One Nation's seat projection fell sharply from 60 in a previous MRP poll to 24 in this one.

The DemosAU Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) poll uses modelling and large sample sizes to estimate the outcome of each House seat. The central projection had Labor winning 84 seats, the Coalition 34, One Nation 24, the Greens zero, and Other parties eight. Labor's seat range was 72-85, while the Coalition's ranged from 25 to 44. One Nation's seat range was 22-35.

National primary votes in the poll were 27% Labor (up one point since the last MRP poll), 26% One Nation (down four), 22% Coalition (up one), 13% Greens (steady), and 12% Others (up two). One Nation's primary vote in rural and regional seats fell to 34%, down seven points.

The poll also noted that in One Nation vs Coalition contests, Labor voters' preferences heavily favoured the Coalition. In Labor vs One Nation contests, Coalition voters' preferences flowed to One Nation at a weaker rate than One Nation's flow to the Coalition.

A separate Morgan poll conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2,655 corroborated the federal polling trend of a drop for both the Coalition and One Nation. It gave Labor 26% of the primary vote, One Nation 24%, the Coalition 21.5%, the Greens 15%, and others 13.5%.

With the Victorian state election scheduled for November 28, a Resolve poll for The Age conducted October 6-10 from a sample of 1,000 gave the Coalition 28% of the primary vote, unchanged, Labor 25%, and One Nation 23%.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The poll suggests Labor could retain government comfortably despite a low primary vote, highlighting the electoral system's preference flow dynamics.
  • One Nation's projected decline, particularly in rural and regional areas, could reshape the political landscape and Coalition strategy.
  • The Victorian election on November 28 will provide a real-world test of the trends seen in federal polling.

Background

Australian federal elections use preferential voting, meaning primary votes alone do not determine seat outcomes. The distribution of preferences from minor party voters is decisive in many seats. MRP polls are statistical models that estimate each seat's likely winner based on demographic and geographic data. DemosAU conducted its first MRP poll for the same outlet earlier in 2026. The Victorian state election is set for November 28, with Premier Jacinta Allan's Labor government facing a challenge from the Coalition led by Brad Battin and a rising One Nation vote.

Key Perspectives

[Labor]: The central projection of 84 seats, though with a wide range, suggests the party could secure a second term even with a low primary vote, benefiting from favorable preference flows. [One Nation]: The 36-seat drop from the previous MRP poll represents a major setback, especially in rural seats where its primary vote fell seven points. The party's seat range of 22-35 suggests further downside risk. [Coalition]: While the Coalition's seat count improved slightly from the previous MRP poll, it remains far short of government, at 34 of 150 seats, and must consider how to win back One Nation defectors.

What to Watch

  • The Victorian state election on November 28: results will show whether One Nation's decline in federal polls is mirrored at state level.
  • Subsequent federal polls: further data will indicate if the trends in this MRP poll are sustained or reversed.
  • Preference flow patterns: changing dynamics between One Nation and Coalition voters could alter outcomes in key seats.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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