Donald Trump Jr has left his paid advisory role at prediction market Kalshi, a move the company described as a mutual business decision after his investment firm increased its investment in rival Polymarket.
Kalshi said Thursday the two parties mutually agreed to end Trump Jr's role as a "strategic advisor," a position he had held since shortly after his father was sworn in as US president in January 2025. The decision followed an increase in investment by Trump Jr's firm, 1789 Capital, in Polymarket this past August as part of that competitor's latest fundraising round.
"We have mutually agreed to end Don's advisory role after his firm's significant investment in a competitor this past summer," said Dani Lever, a spokesperson for Kalshi. "We are grateful for his contributions in helping us market Kalshi to more customers."
Later that year, he also joined the advisory board at Polymarket. The increase was reported to be tens of millions of dollars. Kalshi said Trump's relationship with its competitor led to his departure.
The announcement comes a week after Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections. Democrats have said they planned to investigate the Trump family's investments, including their business relationships with both prediction markets.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their popularity and use jump significantly in the past two years, and both have received favourable treatment from the White House. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has backed the industry's efforts to expand products nationwide, including allowing customers to trade sports-related contracts. Both companies have denied that the financial relationship between Polymarket, Kalshi and the Trumps played any role in how the industry has been regulated under this administration.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The departure highlights potential conflicts of interest between the Trump family's business interests and the rapidly growing prediction market industry, which has received favourable regulatory treatment under the Trump administration.
- Democrats, set to control Congress after the midterms, have flagged investigations into Trump family investments, including ties to Kalshi and Polymarket, raising the prospect of increased political scrutiny.
- The move underscores the competitive dynamics in the prediction market sector, where Kalshi and Polymarket are vying for dominance amid surging popularity.
Background
Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcome of future events, such as elections or sports results. Kalshi and Polymarket are two of the largest platforms in the US. Donald Trump Jr joined Kalshi as a paid strategic adviser in early 2025, shortly after his father began his second presidential term, and later took an advisory role at Polymarket as well. His investment firm, 1789 Capital, has increased its stake in Polymarket, creating a conflict with his advisory role at Kalshi.
Key Perspectives
Kalshi: said it was a mutual business decision, with spokesperson Dani Lever stating: "We have mutually agreed to end Don's advisory role after his firm's significant investment in a competitor this past summer. We are grateful for his contributions in helping us market Kalshi to more customers."
Democrats: have said they plan to investigate the Trump family's investments, including their business relationships with both prediction markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket: have both denied that their financial relationships with the Trumps played any role in how the prediction market industry has been regulated under the current administration.
What to Watch
- Whether Democrats, after taking control of Congress in January, launch formal investigations into the Trump family's ties to prediction markets and any regulatory implications.
- How Kalshi and Polymarket adjust their business strategies and advisory relationships in response to increased political attention.
- Any further moves by 1789 Capital to increase its investment in Polymarket or other prediction market platforms.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 2 sources: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedDonald Trump Jr has left his paid advisory role at Kalshi.Washington Examiner: “Donald Trump Jr departed from his paid advisory role at prediction market Kalshi on Thursday”
- SupportedKalshi described the departure as a mutual business decision after 1789 Capital decided to increase its investment in Polymarket.Business | The Guardian: “Kalshi described it as a mutual business decision between the two parties that followed a decision by Trump Jr’s investment firm, 1789 Capital, to increase its investment in Kalshi’s biggest competitor Polymarket.”
- SupportedKalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said the parties mutually agreed to end Don’s advisory role after his firm’s significant investment in a competitor.Business | The Guardian: ““We have mutually agreed to end Don’s advisory role after his firm’s significant investment in a competitor this past summer,” said Dani Lever, a spokesperson for Kalshi.”
- SupportedDani Lever said Kalshi was grateful for Trump Jr’s contributions to marketing the company to more customers.Business | The Guardian: ““We are grateful for his contributions in helping us market Kalshi to more customers.””
- SupportedTrump Jr became a paid strategic adviser shortly after his father was sworn into office in January 2025.Business | The Guardian: “The president’s eldest son became a paid “strategic adviser” for Kalshi shortly after President Trump was sworn into office for his second term in January 2025”
- Supported1789 Capital increased its investment in Polymarket in August as part of Polymarket’s latest fundraising round.Business | The Guardian: “1789 Capital increased its investment in Polymarket this past August, as part of Polymarket’s latest fundraising round.”
- SupportedThe increase was reported to be tens of millions of dollars.Washington Examiner: “In August, Trump’s investment firm, 1789 Capital, announced it would be increasing its investment in Polymarket by a reported tens of millions of dollars.”
- SupportedTrump Jr later joined Polymarket’s advisory board.Washington Examiner: “Trump first joined Kalshi following his father’s inauguration in 2025 as a “strategic advisor,” and later that year, he also joined the advisory board at Polymarket.”
- SupportedThe announcement came a week after Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections.Business | The Guardian: “But the announcement comes a week after Democrats were able to take control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections.”
- SupportedDemocrats said they planned to investigate the Trump family’s investments, including business relationships with both prediction markets.Business | The Guardian: “Democrats have said they planned to investigate the Trump family’s investments, including their business relationships with both prediction markets.”
- SupportedThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission backed efforts to expand the industry’s products nationwide, including allowing customers to trade sports-related contracts.Business | The Guardian: “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has backed the industry’s efforts to expand their products nationwide, including allowing their customers to trade sports-related contracts.”
- SupportedBoth companies denied that the financial relationship between Polymarket, Kalshi and the Trumps affected how the industry was regulated under the administration.Business | The Guardian: “Both companies have adamantly denied that the financial relationship between Polymarket, Kalshi and the Trumps played any role in how the industry has been regulated under this administration.”