Dozens of Ships Attacked in Strait of Hormuz as US and Iran Vie for Control

UKMTO reports 12 confirmed attacks in week ending October 16, with many vessels refusing to report incidents

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A wave of attacks on vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz has escalated as the United States and Iran compete to assert authority over the strategic waterway, with at least 12 ships confirmed attacked in the week ending October 16 and many more going unreported, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported late on Friday that it is struggling to accurately report the true number of attacks because the majority of vessels targeted are refusing to come forward. The organisation said it was aware of more incidents through other sources but could not verify them due to a lack of information.

Of the 12 vessels that were confirmed attacked, half continued to their destination or reached port. One sank, two were disabled, and three were either damaged or had an unconfirmed outcome. The UKMTO also reported a new type of attack on Saturday, when the master of a tanker said their vessel was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fired from a small boat approximately 144 kilometres northeast of Jubail, Saudi Arabia, resulting in damage to the aft port quarter.

The month of October has seen the highest number of ship attacks since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28. The US has managed to increase energy transits through the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways through a shuttle system coordinated with Arab powers, but volumes have oscillated weekly due to rising Iranian attacks.

Oil flows through the strait were at 11.6 million barrels per day over the seven days to October 13, about 68 percent of the 17.1 million barrels per day pre-war baseline, according to data from Kpler. Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May, driven by the ongoing attacks and expectations that the conflict between the US and Iran was escalating. The situation has been exacerbated by Iran-aligned Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and their capture of the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

The US military has provided a starkly different outlook, though details of its account were not available in the reporting.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world's oil, making any disruption a direct threat to global energy markets and economic stability.
  • Underreporting of attacks by commercial vessels suggests the true security situation may be worse than official counts, raising concerns about insurance costs and shipping willingness.
  • The escalation of Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and the capture of Bab al-Mandeb create a two-front chokehold on energy shipping through the Middle East.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, through which a significant portion of the world's seaborne oil passes. Since late February 2026, the US and Iran have been in open conflict, with the waterway becoming a key battleground. The US has attempted to maintain energy flows through a shuttle system with Arab allies, while Iran has sought to disrupt traffic. The Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen has also targeted Saudi energy facilities and seized control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, compounding pressure on shipping routes.

Key Perspectives

United States: Emphasises freedom of navigation and the protection of energy shipments through a coordinated shuttle system with regional partners, though volumes remain volatile due to attacks. Iran: Seeks to assert its authority over the Strait of Hormuz as a means of exerting leverage against the US and its allies, with attacks on vessels forming part of that strategy. Critics and Analysts: Note that the widespread refusal of vessel operators to report attacks undermines accurate assessment of the threat, potentially masking the full extent of disruptions and the effectiveness of security measures.

What to Watch

  • Oil price movements, particularly whether Brent crude breaks above $110 and stays elevated.
  • Official statements from the US military and Iranian authorities that may clarify their competing claims over control of the waterway.
  • Further Houthi actions against Saudi energy infrastructure, which could drive additional supply disruptions.

Sources

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