Drone strike on Iraqi gasfield raises energy security fears

The attack late on Sunday in Sulaimaniyah governorate sparked a fire and forced the suspension of gas supplies to several power stations, initially reducing electricity generation in areas administered by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) by between 2,500 and 2,800 megawatts, according to regional officials.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has ordered a joint investigative committee with KRG authorities to determine who was behind the attack. No group has claimed responsibility, but the strike comes as regional tensions are heightened due to the US-Israel war on Iran, with Baghdad facing pressure to bring weapons held by predominantly pro-Iranian Shia armed factions under state control. KRG authorities have blamed Iran-backed groups in Iraq for previous attacks on the field in recent years.

The attack also comes days after the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) announced its withdrawal from the KRG, deepening a political crisis with its rival, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).

Mohammed Amer, a political science academic and a member of the KDP, said the Khor Mor attack represents a genuine test of the Iraqi state's sovereignty and its ability to rein in armed groups. "The [federal Iraqi] government bears responsibility for protecting Iraqi territory and airspace," Amer told Al Jazeera. "The repeated targeting of energy sources in the Kurdistan Region also requires it to hold accountable the parties and factions behind these attacks, and to question the authorities responsible for the areas from which they are launched."

Amer urged the Iraqi government to accelerate efforts to bring weapons under state control, warning that repeated attacks could deter foreign investment in Iraq's energy industry. “These strikes target foreign investment in Iraq’s energy sector, particularly as the Khor Mor field has been targeted many times using drones and missiles,” he said. “There are factions that declare their loyalty to Iran and not to the Iraqi state, and this raises questions about the government's ability to impose its authority and sovereignty over all Iraqi territory.”

Strategic affairs researcher Kadhim Yawer linked the attack to regional tensions, with concerns that the US-Iran war may escalate further. "The strategic purpose of targeting the Khor Mor field at this time is primarily due to external factors linked to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and the US, as well as the desire to inflict economic damage on the Kurdistan Region and Iraq in general," Yawer said.

He noted that the dispute over disarming militias, combined with worsening KDP-PUK divisions, could add economic pressure on the region at a time when the field's importance could grow as the KRG seeks to expand gas production and potentially reach new markets. Yawer argued that the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq had created additional security challenges, particularly as some political forces continue to not support full disarmament.

The Reuters news agency has reported that the attack originated from the Tuz Khurmatu area of Salah al-Din governorate, outside the Kurdish region, though neither the launch location nor the perpetrators have been officially established.

Political researcher Ghanem al-Abed said the attack's timing coincided with political disagreements between the KDP and the PUK, and escalating disagreements between the prime minister and some armed factions over handing over their weapons. He said economic consequences could extend beyond KRG areas given the field's role in electricity generation in Kirkuk and Nineveh governorates. “The Iraqi government must announce the identity of the parties seeking to destroy the country's economy and hold them accountable,” he said. “The situation in Iraq could explode at any moment because some armed factions are not complying with the demand to hand over their weapons to the state. If war breaks out again between Iran and the US, these factions may intervene in the confrontation, and Iraq could then turn into a battlefield.”