Why This Matters
- The resurgence of fighting risks plunging Ethiopia back into the 2020–2022 civil war, which killed tens of thousands and displaced millions.
- Instability in the Horn of Africa threatens regional security and could draw in neighbouring countries.
- The breakdown of the 2022 Pretoria peace deal would have major humanitarian consequences for Tigray’s already-starving population.
Background
Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF signed a peace agreement in November 2022 that ended a two-year civil war. The deal included provisions for disarmament, the restoration of federal services to Tigray, and political dialogue. However, implementation has been slow and fraught with mistrust. Tensions have risen sharply in recent weeks, with the government accusing Tigrayan leaders of rearming and the TPLF alleging federal encroachment on its autonomy.
Key Perspectives
[Ethiopian Federal Government]: The army claims it is acting to defend the country’s sovereignty and has repelled attacks, portraying the TPLF as the aggressor.
[Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)]: The TPLF has not commented on the army’s claims, but its seizure of airports on Wednesday suggests it is reasserting control in the region.
[International Observers]: The UN, AU, and Western governments have called for restraint and a return to dialogue, worried that the Pretoria agreement is unravelling.
What to Watch
- Whether the TPLF issues a formal response to the army’s claims or announces further military moves.
- The reaction of the African Union, which brokered the 2022 peace deal, and whether it can mediate a new ceasefire.
- Reports of civilian displacement or casualties that could signal the scale of the renewed conflict.