Trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and his team leave on Wednesday, with negotiations scheduled to start the following day and continue late into Friday. Sources say they hope to achieve "tangible, meaningful and measurable" results before the meeting of EU leaders in Brussels next Thursday, where China is high on the agenda.
The main focus is a "proof of concept" pilot agreement involving one sector, expected to be cars, which could be scaled up to other sectors in the coming months.
Diplomatic efforts to avert a full-scale trade war began at the end of June, though there was little hope China would curb exports given its ability to pivot quickly when trade barriers are imposed. After the EU imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in October 2024, exports of hybrid cars, which were not subject to tariffs, boomed.
Last month the EU asked China to voluntarily restrict hybrid exports to address soaring sales, warning that safeguards, which could include quotas, might be enacted if it did not. China's response is not known, but sources say the mood in talks has changed as EU member states have hardened demands for protection against Chinese imports.
On Monday, Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, agreed a "historic U-turn" on China policy by siding with France's president, Emmanuel Macron, in authorising effective permission for EU leaders to approve a new instrument allowing the bloc to defend trade by cutting access to the single market at short notice. Their joint paper warned of "a massive industrial shock" affecting sectors at the heart of the European industrial model, including pharmaceuticals, aerospace, automotive, machine tools and chemicals, and called for the use of all existing trade defence tools plus a new diversification instrument.
Andrew Small, a former EU adviser on China and now Asia director at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said the talks will test the resolve of both sides and "determine whether China is willing to put sufficiently serious offers on the table". He warned that China's most effective tactic may be to draw Europe into a "process trap", offering just enough to delay action without addressing the forces driving European deindustrialisation.