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European gas prices hit four-year high as winter supply and Iran fears mount

UK month-ahead contract at highest since December 2022 as households face predicted 16 per cent rise in bills

By LineZotpaper AI staff

Published26 October 2026

Updated26 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources3 outlets

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Illustration: European gas prices hit four-year high as winter supply and Iran fears mount

European wholesale gas prices hit €97 (£81) per megawatt-hour on Monday, their highest since 2022, as temperatures fell across the continent and reports of planned US and Israeli strikes on Iran deepened winter supply fears.

Traders priced in stronger heating demand as colder weather set in. The UK's month-ahead contract rose 4 per cent to 240p per therm, its highest since December 2022, when prices were rocketing after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The rally follows reports that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections. Those reports helped send oil as high as $117 a barrel on Friday. The Brent crude benchmark retreated about 2 per cent on Monday but remains above $114.

Europe heads into winter with gas storage at its lowest level in more than a decade: about 75 per cent full, against a seasonal average closer to 80 per cent. A slowdown in exports from Qatar and higher summer consumption for refrigeration and cooling have drained reserves.

Britain's energy regulators have warned the country is expected to pay some of the highest energy costs in Europe this winter, reflecting its reliance on imports and some of the smallest gas stores on the continent after decades of North Sea production. The UK paid a record £4bn on power imports in the year to August, half of it for electricity from France, and has made near-record payments to run gas plants while wind and solar farms were paid to switch off because of grid bottlenecks.

British households face a predicted 16 per cent rise in energy bills in January, to the equivalent of about £2,000 for a typical annual bill. European stock markets rose slightly on Monday on the weaker oil price, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.3 per cent and the FTSE 100 up 0.4 per cent.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

Households and businesses across Europe face higher heating costs this winter, with UK bills predicted to rise 16 per cent in January.
Gas storage at about 75 per cent, the lowest in more than a decade, leaves Europe with a thinner buffer against any supply disruption.
Renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran could disrupt Middle East energy flows, with Brent crude already above $114 a barrel.

Background

Europe's gas market has been acutely sensitive to supply shocks since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which pushed prices to record levels and forced the continent to rebuild how it sources and stores gas. Storage has since become central to winter planning, giving countries a reserve to draw on when demand peaks. This year those reserves are thinner than usual, drained by lower Qatari exports and heavier summer consumption, just as winter heating demand begins to build.

What to Watch

Whether wholesale prices keep climbing as temperatures fall and heating demand builds into the winter peak.
Whether the reported US-Israel plans for renewed strikes on Iran proceed after the US midterm elections, and how oil and gas benchmarks react.
The January UK bill increase and the speed at which European storage drains through the winter.

Sources

European gas prices soar to four-year high over winter supply fears · The Guardian
European gas prices soar to four-year high over winter supply fears · The Guardian
European gas prices soar to four-year high over winter supply fears · The Guardian

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.

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SupportedEuropean gas prices reached their highest level since 2022 amid winter supply fears.Business | The Guardian: “European gas prices soar to four-year high over winter supply fears. European gas prices have jumped to levels not seen since 2022 as fears continue to grow around the continent’s supply this winter”
SupportedWholesale gas prices hit €97 per megawatt-hour.Business | The Guardian: “Wholesale gas prices hit €97 (£81) per megawatt-hour on Monday”
SupportedFalling temperatures, low storage and Middle East disruption fears tightened the winter supply outlook.Business | The Guardian: “European gas prices have jumped to levels not seen since 2022 as fears continue to grow around the continent’s supply this winter and ongoing conflict in the Middle East.”
SupportedThe UK's month-ahead contract rose 4% to 240p per therm, its highest level since December 2022.Business | The Guardian: “The UK’s month ahead contract also rose by 4% to 240p per therm, its highest level since December 2022”
SupportedReports said the US and Israel had drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections.Business | The Guardian: “amid reports that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections.”
SupportedThose reports helped send oil as high as $117 a barrel on Friday; Brent fell about 2% on Monday but remained above $114 a barrel.Business | The Guardian: “Those reports helped send the oil price as high as $117 a barrel on Friday. The international Brent crude benchmark retreated about 2% on Monday but remains over $114 (£85) a barrel.”
SupportedEuropean gas storage was at its lowest level in more than a decade, owing to slower exports from Qatar and higher summer consumption for refrigeration and cooling.Business | The Guardian: “Europe is also facing a shortage of stored gas reserves as it heads into winter with stores at their lowest level in more than a decade owing to a slowdown in exports from Qatar and an increase in consumption in the summer to power refrigeration and cooling.”
SupportedEuropean storage was about 75% full, compared with a seasonal average closer to 80%.Business | The Guardian: “European storage is now about 75% full, against a seasonal average closer to 80%.”
SupportedBritain's energy regulators warned that the country was expected to pay some of Europe's highest energy costs this winter, partly because it relies on imports.Business | The Guardian: “Britain’s energy regulators have warned that the country is expected to pay some of the highest energy costs in Europe this winter amid a reliance on imports to ensure a steady supply.”
SupportedThe UK has some of the continent's smallest gas stores after decades of relying on North Sea production.Business | The Guardian: “The UK has some of the smallest gas stores across the continent after decades of relying on homegrown production from the North Sea.”
SupportedThe UK paid a record £4bn on power imports over the year ending in August, half of it for electricity from France.Business | The Guardian: “The UK paid a record £4bn on power imports over the year ending in August, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics, of which half was spent on electricity imported from France.”
SupportedHousehold energy bills were predicted to rise 16% in January to about £2,000 for a typical annual bill.Business | The Guardian: “Meanwhile British households face growing energy bills, which are predicted to rise 16% in January to reach the equivalent of about £2,000 for the typical annual billl.”