Florida Republicans are privately expressing deep concern over sluggish early turnout, with some describing the mood as 'white-knuckled', according to a report from Axios, as Governor Ron DeSantis warned the party's vote is not as strong as hoped and data suggests Democrat David Jolly could narrow the gap in the governor's race against Republican Byron Donalds, despite Donalds' massive fundraising advantage.
The anxiety centers on early and mail-in ballot returns ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections. Republicans currently lead Democrats among early voters by 2.8 percentage points, far below their 11-point registration advantage. In 17 counties that Donalds lost in the Republican primary, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below its 2022 level, compared with 1.1 points below in counties he won, University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found.
Democrats have already surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, versus four for Republicans. Polls show independent voters favouring Democrats by double digits, meaning Republicans need a heavy turnout advantage.
Democratic strategist Steve Schale found that among voters who waited until Election Day in 2022, roughly 60,000 more Republicans than Democrats have already voted this year, potentially shrinking the GOP's usual Tuesday advantage. Internal estimates from both parties, shared with Axios, suggest Donalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes and could need to win the Election Day vote by a 2:1 ratio to overcome that deficit.
Black and Hispanic voters, who are polling more Democratic in Florida, account for an increasing share of the early electorate. Across racial groups, Democrats are voting at higher rates: 50% of white active Democrats have voted compared with 35% of white Republicans; among active registered Democrats under 30, 25% have cast ballots versus 9% of Republicans.
State GOP chair Evan Power expressed confidence: "We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this." But a top consultant for a statewide race acknowledged: "Just a few weeks ago I didn't think I would be feeling like this. It's not panic. At least not yet."
Republicans are also worried about losing 10 to 15 state House seats, threatening their supermajority, and about Representative Maria Elvira Salazar's race in Miami's 27th Congressional District. Nationally, the climate is such that Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio and South Carolina are considered competitive.
A longtime Republican consultant raised the issue of race, saying: “We're about to run the biggest experiment to see how racist some of our voters are,” and noting that Donalds and Nixon are both Black. The consultant called the counties Donalds lost “more culturally Confederate” than the rest of Florida. MAGA influencer Laura Loomer posted that “if people think skin color didn't play a role in that, they are naive.”
Republicans remain more confident about Senator Ashley Moody's race against Nixon, who is widely seen as too progressive for the red state's voters.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Florida governor's race is a key test of Republican strength in a state that has trended red; a Donalds loss would be a major embarrassment for President Trump and the state GOP.
- Early turnout data suggests the Democratic base is more energised, potentially signalling a broader wave that could affect House races and down-ballot contests.
- The outcome will shape the national political narrative ahead of the 2028 presidential cycle and influence campaign strategies for both parties.
Background
Florida was once considered a safe bet for Republicans in the midterms, but shifting voter demographics and economic concerns have tightened races. Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election by a large margin in 2022, but the current election features a competitive governor's race between Republican Representative Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly, as well as a Senate race between Republican Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon. Early voting data has created jitters among GOP operatives.
Key Perspectives
Florida GOP elders: described the mood as "white-knuckled" about turnout.
Governor Ron DeSantis: said "I don't necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't think the turnout is as strong as we would like to see."
State GOP chair Evan Power: "We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this."
A top consultant for a statewide race: "Just a few weeks ago I didn't think I would be feeling like this. It's not panic. At least not yet."
A longtime Republican consultant: said the party is "about to run the biggest experiment to see how racist some of our voters are," and called the counties Donalds lost "more culturally Confederate."
MAGA influencer Laura Loomer: posted that "During the primary, he underperformed in the Panhandle and if people think skin color didn't play a role in that, they are naive."
What to Watch
- Tuesday's Election Day turnout: whether Republicans can produce the 2:1 margin needed to overcome a potential 500,000-vote deficit.
- The final early ballot advantage: if Democrats narrow the gap further, Donalds' path becomes extremely difficult.
- Whether concerns about racism affecting Black candidates' performance materialise in final results, particularly in the Panhandle and North Florida.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
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- Partly supportedFlorida Republicans are 'white-knuckled' over turnout concerns.Axios: “in the words of one GOP elder: "We're white-knuckled."”
- SupportedEarly turnout data flags a risk to the Florida governor's race.Axios: “The biggest GOP concern is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds' campaign for governor”
- SupportedMost polls show Byron Donalds narrowly leading David Jolly.Axios: “though most polls show him narrowly leading Democrat David Jolly.”
- SupportedRepublicans lead Democrats by 2.8 percentage points in early ballots despite an 11-point registration advantage.Axios: “Republicans led Democrats in early ballots cast by just 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon. That's much lower than in the past two general elections — and it's despite a much-bigger Republican registration advantage over Democrats: 11 points.”
- SupportedRon DeSantis warned that turnout was not as strong as Republicans hoped.Axios: “"I don't necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't think the turnout is as strong as we would like to see," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fretted last week.”
- SupportedDonalds has a massive fundraising advantage over Jolly.Axios: “Donalds has raised $176 million; Jolly just $28 million.”
- Partly supportedNearly every poll shows independents favouring Democrats by double digits, so Republicans need a heavy turnout advantage.Axios: “Nearly every poll shows independent voters favoring Democrats by double digits, so Republicans need a heavy turnout advantage.”
- SupportedIn 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below its 2022 level, compared with 1.1 points below in counties he won.Axios: “In those 17 counties, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below 2022, compared with 1.1 points below in counties that Donalds won, University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found.”
- SupportedDemocrats have surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, compared with four counties for Republicans.Axios: “Democrats already have surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, compared with four counties for Republicans.”
- SupportedDonalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes and could need to win that day's vote by a 2:1 ratio.Axios: “Donalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes, according to internal Democratic and GOP estimates shared with Axios. To overcome that deficit, Donalds could need to win the Election Day vote by a 2:1 ratio.”
- SupportedA top consultant for a statewide race said, 'Just a few weeks ago I didn't think I would be feeling like this. It's not panic. At least not yet.'Axios: “"Just a few weeks ago I didn't think I would be feeling like this," a top consultant for one of the statewide races said. "It's not panic. At least not yet."”
- SupportedState GOP chair Evan Power said, 'We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this.'Axios: “"We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this," state GOP chair Evan Power said.”