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Flu season peaks late in Australia as cases surge, experts urge vaccination

More than 31,000 cases recorded in two weeks to September 6, a 27.2% increase from the prior period

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
Australia’s flu season is peaking later than usual, with infectious diseases experts urging the public to still get vaccinated despite the late timing. In the two weeks to September 6, the Australian Respiratory Surveillance report recorded more than 31,000 influenza cases, a 27.2 per cent increase from the previous period, bringing the year-to-date total to 171,440 laboratory-confirmed cases.

The late peak marks a shift back towards pre-COVID seasonality, according to University of Queensland virologist Professor Kirsty Short. "This seems to be more going back to what we're used to," she said. After the pandemic, flu peaks arrived earlier; this year's later surge resembles patterns seen before 2020.

Monash University infectious diseases expert Professor Allen Cheng described it as a "really strange season". Until mid-August, influenza activity was much lower than usual. He noted that since COVID-19, flu epidemiology has been unpredictable, with early starts in 2022 and 2023.

The dominant strain circulating is the Super-K subclade of H3N2 Influenza A — the same strain that drove a record-breaking season in 2025. Professor Cheng speculated that this strain may be better adapted to spreading at this time of year.

Case breakdown by jurisdiction shows: ACT 2,896; NSW 79,376; NT 1,032; Queensland 33,466; South Australia 7,757; Tasmania 1,672; Victoria 34,552; Western Australia 10,689. While total cases are significantly lower than last year, the unseasonal timing has prompted health authorities to maintain vaccination recommendations. Professor Short warned that immunity from earlier vaccination may have waned, but said there is still benefit in getting the jab now.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • A late flu peak means Australians who skipped vaccination may still be at risk; late-season doses could reduce hospitalisations and severe illness.
  • The ongoing unpredictability of flu season post-COVID complicates public health messaging and vaccine timing.
  • With the dominant Super-K strain potentially adapted to spring conditions, future seasonality may shift further.

Background

Australia’s flu season typically peaks in winter (June–August), but the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this pattern. In 2022 and 2023, flu arrived earlier than usual, while 2025 saw a record number of cases driven by the Super-K H3N2 subclade. This year’s late surge suggests a return to pre-pandemic rhythms, though experts caution that climate change and population immunity remain unknowns.

Key Perspectives

Professor Kirsty Short (University of Queensland virologist): Emphasises the return to pre-COVID seasonality and the difficulty of timing vaccination as immunity wanes. She notes that earlier vaccination may now leave people less protected, but it is still worthwhile to get the shot. Professor Allen Cheng (Monash University infectious diseases expert): Highlights the oddity of this season, with low activity until August, and questions whether the Super-K strain is uniquely suited to late-season spread. He recommends vaccination despite the late timing. Critics/Skeptics: No counter-arguments appear in the source material. However, some members of the public may question the value of late vaccination; public health authorities must communicate the continued benefit.

What to Watch

  • Case numbers over the next fortnight to see if the peak has been reached or continues rising.
  • Hospitalisation and ICU admission rates to assess severity of the late-season wave.
  • Any updated recommendations from the federal health department on extended vaccination campaigns or booster guidance.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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