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Merz Vows to Stay On as Exit Polls Show CDU Losses in Two German States

Projected defeats in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern raise pressure on embattled chancellor

By LineZotpaper
Published
Updated
Read Time2 min
Sources6 outlets
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to remain in office despite exit polls showing his centre-right CDU suffering heavy losses in Sunday's state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with the far-right AfD projected to top the poll in the north-eastern state for the first time.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said he will stay on as CDU leader despite exit polls indicating a "disaster" in two state elections held on Sunday, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) projected to make further gains.

Public broadcaster ZDF projected the AfD taking 38% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, ahead of the CDU which was hovering just above the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. In Berlin, the CDU was projected to win only 20%, behind Die Linke with nearly 26%.

Merz called the result "a disaster" in a statement delivered after exit polls were announced, but insisted he would not step aside despite mounting speculation of a so-called chancellor swap.

Around 3.8 million voters went to the polls in the two states on Sunday, two weeks after the AfD's landmark win in Saxony-Anhalt and just over a fortnight after the CDU's vote share was halved in that state.

The elections are widely seen as a test of Merz's leadership, which has been under pressure for months due to poor approval ratings and a string of regional defeats. The CDU's poor performance in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania could be its worst ever result in a state election.

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Analysis

Why this matters

  • The results could determine whether Merz survives as chancellor, with growing speculation of a mid-term replacement if the CDU's fortunes do not improve.
  • The AfD's projected gains underline the far-right party's consolidation in eastern Germany, posing a challenge to mainstream parties' refusal to cooperate with it.
  • The outcome could reshape Germany's political landscape ahead of the federal election, with the CDU's weakness potentially opening space for the AfD to become a dominant force in the east.

Background

The elections come after a period of intense political turmoil for Merz, who has been chancellor for only 16 months. His CDU has suffered a string of regional defeats, most notably in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago, where the AfD won its highest ever state result. The AfD's anti-immigration, Russia-friendly platform has gained traction in the former communist east, where the party is particularly strong. Some branches of the AfD are classified as right-wing extremist by Germany's domestic intelligence, a designation the party rejects. Merz has faced persistent rumours that he could be replaced before the next federal election, despite receiving backing from several state leaders earlier this week.

Key perspectives

  • Friedrich Merz: The chancellor insists he will continue in office, even as he acknowledges the electoral 'disaster'. He has blamed the party's poor showing on broader national discontent rather than his own leadership.
  • The CDU: The party faces an existential dilemma, with some members calling for a leadership change while others argue that replacing Merz would only strengthen the AfD's narrative of a divided establishment.
  • The AfD: The far-right party, while celebrating projected gains, still faces a 'cordon sanitaire' from other parties that refuse to work with it, limiting its ability to govern despite winning the most votes.
  • Die Linke: The Left party's projected lead in Berlin suggests a left-wing surge that could offset the AfD's rise in some urban areas, complicating any simple narrative of a far-right sweep.

What to watch

  • Final results are expected later on Sunday, with the CDU's performance in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern closely watched to see if it falls below the 5% threshold.
  • Any announcement of a leadership challenge to Merz from within the CDU, especially if the party performs worse than expected in the coming days.
  • Signals from the AfD on whether it will seek to form coalitions or continue to be isolated by other parties, which could affect its ability to convert votes into power.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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