Germany has entered winter with its gas storage about 61% full, well short of the 80% target every EU member state is obliged to meet, as the European gas benchmark held above €100 per MWh last week. The shortfall in the bloc's largest gas consumer and largest storage holder has prompted Germany's storage industry association to call for a legal storage obligation on suppliers, while the head of the country's energy regulator says meeting the targets is no longer essential to a secure supply.
Germany holds more than a fifth of the EU's total gas storage capacity and is the bloc's biggest consumer of natural gas. Warnings about the levels had been circulating for weeks: in September the storage association INES predicted Germany would reach at best 77% by 1 November at the then-current pace of LNG purchases. That forecast proved too optimistic.
INES acknowledged that the war in the Middle East had made refilling storage uneconomical, and said on Sunday that the failure to meet storage targets showed levels for coming winters must be guaranteed more rigorously. The article said it appeared that many buyers in Germany and elsewhere in the EU had spent recent months waiting for a peace deal between Iran and the United States and lower prices, which would presumably make refilling economical again. Instead, the threat of a new escalation after the US midterm elections and QatarEnergy's extension of force majeure on LNG exports meant gas purchases were about to get even less economical.
INES is calling for the state to step in. Its managing director, Sebastian Heinermann, said the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs was open to introducing an obligation on suppliers, and that specific options for the design of a storage obligation should be discussed at the earliest opportunity so it can be enshrined in law without delay.
Not everyone agrees the situation is dire. Klaus Mueller, head of Germany's energy market regulator, believes it is no longer essential for a secure gas supply that the storage targets be met, according to Reuters. Mueller believes prompt LNG purchases during the winter would secure enough gas for Germany, while acknowledging that prices have risen significantly.
Gas traders appear to expect no quick relief. The TTF contract for December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027 is trading above €100 per MWh. Forecasters expect colder than usual temperatures in Germany in the coming days, which could aggravate the problem.
The price pressure is pushing utilities back towards coal. Reuters reported in September that higher gas prices were forcing utilities to shift back to coal, making the fuel profitable again despite the added cost of carbon offsets, which are highest for coal plants. Analysts at the time predicted coal power generation across the EU would jump by 25% over the six months to March 2027 as gas generation suffers from high prices. One ICIS analyst told Reuters in September that even if the price of gas reached €100/MWh, the power sector could not react that much more; that price has now been reached, and coal generators have limited capacity to respond.
Germany therefore faces a choice between mandating gas purchases at exorbitant prices, which will rise further as buying begins, or boosting coal purchases to secure power generation during peak heating season, a difficult position for an emissions-focused government.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Germany's storage shortfall affects European gas and power prices through the winter, and the benchmark is already above €100/MWh for the coming months.
- A shift back to coal in the EU's largest economy complicates Germany's energy transition goals and raises EU emissions.
- The dispute between INES and the regulator over whether storage targets still matter signals a policy decision on a supplier obligation is likely soon.
Background
Germany is the European Union's largest economy and its biggest consumer and storer of natural gas, so its winter position weighs heavily on the wider European market. EU rules require member states to fill storage to 80% ahead of winter. Since the loss of large-scale Russian pipeline supplies, Germany has relied more on LNG, making it sensitive to global prices and to disruptions such as the Middle East conflict and Qatar's export force majeure.
Key Perspectives
- INES, Germany's gas storage association: says the failure to meet storage targets shows levels for coming winters must be guaranteed more rigorously, and backs a legal storage obligation on suppliers.
- Sebastian Heinermann, INES managing director: says the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs is open to a supplier obligation and that its design must be settled quickly so it can be enshrined in law.
- Klaus Mueller, head of Germany's energy market regulator: believes meeting the storage targets is no longer essential for a secure supply, and that prompt LNG purchases during winter would secure enough gas.
- ICIS analyst (via Reuters): says the power sector could not react much more even if gas prices reached €100/MWh, a level now reached.
What to Watch
- Whether the German government legislates a storage obligation on suppliers, and how quickly.
- The TTF curve for December 2026 through February 2027, which is trading above €100/MWh, and whether it eases.
- Weather forecasts for Germany in the coming days and whether colder-than-usual temperatures drive further coal use.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedGermany entered winter with gas storage about 61% full, below the EU’s 80% target.Oilprice.com: “Germany has failed to do that, only filling its storage to about 61%.”
- SupportedEvery EU member state is obliged to fill 80% of its storage capacity.Oilprice.com: “Every European Union member state has an obligation to secure enough natural gas ahead of winter to fill 80% of storage capacity.”
- SupportedThe European gas benchmark topped €100/MWh last week and remained above that level.Oilprice.com: “the European gas benchmark topped 100 euros per MWh last week and has stayed there since.”
- SupportedGermany’s storage shortfall has prompted INES to call for a legal storage obligation on suppliers.Oilprice.com: “This is exactly what Germany’s INES is calling for: “It is therefore right and important that the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs is open to the introduction of an obligation on suppliers.””
- SupportedGermany’s energy regulator head says meeting storage targets is no longer essential for secure gas supply.Oilprice.com: “The head of Germany’s energy market regulator, Klaus Mueller, for instance, believes that “It is no longer essential for a secure gas supply that the storage targets be met,” as quoted by Reuters.”
- SupportedGermany has the EU’s largest gas storage capacity, accounting for more than a fifth of the bloc’s total, and is its largest natural-gas consumer.Oilprice.com: “Germany has the EU’s biggest gas storage capacity, accounting for over a fifth of the bloc’s total capacity. It is also the biggest consumer of natural gas in the EU.”
- SupportedIn September, INES forecast that Germany could fill storage to at most 77% by 1 November at the then-current rate of LNG purchases.Oilprice.com: “In September, the country’s gas storage association, INES, warned that at the current rate of LNG purchases, Germany would only be able to fill caverns to 77% at best by November 1.”
- SupportedINES said the war in the Middle East had made storage refilling uneconomical.Oilprice.com: “acknowledging that the war in the Middle East had made gas storage refilling “uneconomical”, as quoted by Reuters.”
- SupportedINES said the failure to meet storage targets showed levels for coming winters must be guaranteed more rigorously.Oilprice.com: ““The failure to meet storage level targets shows that storage levels for coming winters must be guaranteed more rigorously,” the industry body said on Sunday”
- SupportedThe article reports that gas buyers in Germany and elsewhere in the EU appeared to have waited for a peace deal between Iran and the United States and lower prices.Oilprice.com: “It appears that a lot of gas buyers both in Germany and other EU member states spent the last few months waiting for a peace deal between Iran and the United States, and lower gas prices”
- SupportedKlaus Mueller believes prompt winter LNG purchases would secure enough gas for Germany, while acknowledging that prices have risen significantly.Oilprice.com: “Mueller believes that prompt LNG purchases during the winter would secure enough gas for the EU’s largest consumer, acknowledging gas prices have gone significantly higher.”
- SupportedTTF contracts for December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027 are each trading above €100/MWh.Oilprice.com: “The TTF contract for both December 2026 and January 2027 is trading above 100 euro per MWh—and so is the February 2027 contract.”