Internal confidence probe eclipses verbalized scores in calibration for reasoning models

Probe-SD distills internal calibration into model outputs, cutting calibration error by an order of magnitude.

Big Tech
Yadong Xi · Rongsheng Zhang · Tangjie Lv · Ziyang Luo · Ruochen Zhao

NetEase · Amazon · Singapore University of Technology and Design

Research Digest··3 min read
Xi et al.

The authors argue that RL with binary rewards trains correctness but not calibrated confidence, leading to overconfident verbalized scores that measure commitment rather than evidence.

Why this paper

From Amazon and 2 others

In one line

Internal hidden state probes provide well-calibrated confidence for reasoning models and can distill that calibration into the model's outputs.

What we could check

  • ·No code link found
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  • ·No compute details found
  • ·No stated limitations found
  • ✓Reports numbers on named benchmarks

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