President Donald Trump and the US military have disputed Iran's claim that seven oil tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz, the largest reported single-day toll since the war with Iran began. Trump called the reports 'fake hits' aimed at pushing up oil prices before the US midterm elections, and US Central Command said the waterway remains open with most vessels getting through.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that four tankers transferring oil were targeted and caught fire overnight, and that three more were disabled after striking mines. It said the seven ships sustained damage, the largest single-day toll for the waterway since the United States and Israel began their war against Iran on February 28. The claims could not be independently verified, and Iran gave no details on casualties or the tankers' flags.
The IRGC also warned it could strike US bases across the Middle East if Washington moves to help tankers transit other parts of the strait. "The US military must know that if this trend continues, the conflict will extend to its bases in the region," it said in a statement on its Sepah News website. "This is a serious warning."
Washington pushed back the same day. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said Iran is "doing everything they can to drive up the price of oil prior to the US Midterm Election," adding that "they are making up fake hits, mines, and everything else because more oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the conflict."
A US Central Command spokesperson, speaking anonymously to Al Jazeera, called Iran's mine claims incorrect, saying US forces have cleared the international shipping lanes of mines and that Iran is using missiles and drones. The strait remains open, the spokesperson said, with 95 percent of vessels getting through, and the attacks showed Tehran's "desperation" under the US blockade.
Iran claims control over Hormuz, a strategic shipping route through which one-fifth of the world's oil supplies passed before the war, and says it regularly attacks ships that attempt to navigate the strait without its authorisation. The US military has been escorting vessels through the waterway in increasing numbers, with Iran responding by stepping up attacks. Al Jazeera's Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran, said Iran maintains it has "full control" over the strait, and that there is talk of an imminent escalation, with Iranians expecting a US attack before the midterms in early November.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The world's most important oil chokepoint is the scene of a fast-escalating confrontation, with Iran and the United States now publicly telling opposite versions of what is happening in the waterway.
- Washington's outright dismissal of Iran's account raises the risk of miscalculation on either side, since each treats the other's claims as propaganda.
- The dispute lands weeks before the US midterm elections, with fuel prices already a political liability for President Trump.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of the world's oil supplies before the war that began on February 28, when the United States and Israel started their campaign against Iran. Tehran claims control over the waterway and has a record of attacking shipping it deems unauthorised, while the US military has been escorting tankers through in growing numbers. Washington's blockade, US officials say, cuts Iran off from the resources it needs to rebuild the military capabilities the US says it destroyed. Iran, for its part, argues it has produced enough weapons and equipment to fight a symmetric war and is more ready than at any previous point.
Key Perspectives
Iran and the IRGC: Iran says seven tankers were hit, that it holds full control of the strait, and that continued US escort operations could extend the conflict to American bases across the region. Tehran expects escalation, with Iranian officials briefing that a US attack may come before the midterms.
United States: Trump says the attack reports are fabricated to raise oil prices for political gain, and Central Command says mines have been cleared from the international shipping lanes, the strait is open, and most traffic is getting through. Washington characterises the attacks as an act of desperation under its blockade.
Domestic US critics: Reporting from Washington, Al Jazeera notes that most Americans want relief from tax money going toward a ramped-up war and are frustrated by rising fuel costs. Pressure on Trump is coming from within the Republican Party as well as from the opposition, with polls suggesting a strike on Iran serves no party's political interest ahead of the midterms.
What to Watch
- Whether either side produces verifiable evidence of the attacks, such as vessel tracking data, imagery, or a confirmed flag state for the damaged tankers.
- Any Iranian move to follow through on its warning and strike US bases in the Middle East, which would mark a significant escalation.
- The run-up to the US midterm elections in early November, which both Tehran and Washington treat as a possible trigger for further military action.