The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, has seen a resurgence in attacks by Iranian forces. Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, a firm that tracks ships for governments, said Iran attacked roughly two ships for every 100 vessels crossing the strait in the third quarter. The security situation remains dangerous, and the rebound in crude exports may not be sustainable without a negotiated settlement or capitulation by Tehran.
To reduce exposure to attacks, many tankers now transfer their crude onto other ships in the Gulf of Oman, a shuttle system that requires more vessels and adds cost. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former energy advisor to President George W. Bush, called the arrangement unsustainable financially. “It’s an inefficient way to move commodities, not just oil, out of Hormuz,” he said.
Crude oil shipments through Hormuz fluctuate daily, sometimes matching or exceeding prewar levels, according to Kpler, a firm that tracks tankers and global trade flows. But for the week ended Saturday, shipments averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day, about 23 percent below a prewar baseline of 13.5 million bpd. Windward estimates average flows of 9–10 million bpd compared with a prewar baseline of 14.5 million bpd.
The human cost is mounting. Since July, at least nine sailors have died, 18 have been injured and three are missing, according to the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency. Freight and insurance rates have also soared, Bockmann noted.
While the US military has successfully carved out a southern route along Oman’s coast, allowing some oil to flow, the high costs and continued attacks cast doubt on the durability of the recovery. “Nobody in Washington thinks this is sustainable financially,” McNally said.