Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday in their first general election since the Hamas attacks of October 2023, a vote widely framed as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership. The nation's longest-serving prime minister is seeking to hold onto power against a field that includes several new parties, and polling points to a fragmented result likely to require weeks of coalition negotiations.
Thirty-eight parties are contesting the election, though most will not pass the threshold for seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The main contenders include Netanyahu's Likud, the right-wing nationalist party; Yashar, a centre-right nationalist party formed in September 2025 and led by former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot; and Beyachad, a new joint list led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. The centre-left Democrats, created in 2024 from a merger of Labour and Meretz, are led by former deputy IDF chief Yair Golan.
The far-right coalition partners Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionists, the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, and newcomer Amcha Yisrael are also contesting, along with Yisrael Beiteinu, the Arab-led Joint List and United Arab List, and a number of smaller groups. Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan, once a major player, saw its leader drop out of the race on October 19.
Most polling suggests Yashar will be the largest party with 20 to 23 seats, ahead of Likud on 19 to 21. The right-wing parties expected to gather around Likud collectively reach 49 to 51 seats, while the opposition parties around Yashar reach 52 to 55, leaving an estimated 14 to 19 seats with smaller groups including the Palestinian parties. Neither bloc is projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority without support from the United Arab List or the Joint List.
The campaign has focused heavily on Netanyahu and whether he has reached his "use-by date". The wars in Gaza and Lebanon are not expected to shift many votes, and opposition parties are not promising radical changes. Cost-of-living pressures are also not seen as a major factor. Several opposition parties are running on a platform of establishing an independent national inquiry into the failures that allowed the October 7 attacks.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The election is effectively a referendum on Netanyahu after the October 7 attacks and the wars in Gaza and Lebanon that followed.
- The result will determine the makeup of the 120-seat Knesset and whether Israel can form a stable government or face weeks of coalition bargaining and possible defections.
- The outcome could shape Israeli policy toward Gaza, military service and relations with Palestinian citizens, though the opposition is not promising radical change.
Background
Israel's parliamentary system is built on proportional representation, which almost always produces coalition governments. No single party in this election is close to 61 seats, the threshold for a Knesset majority, so the next prime minister will need support from smaller parties, including the Arab-led United Arab List or the Joint List. This election is the first since the October 2023 Hamas attacks, which have reshaped the country and the region. The campaign has been dominated by Netanyahu's record, with the opposition casting the vote as a judgment on his leadership.
Key Perspectives
Netanyahu and the right-wing bloc: Likud and its natural coalition partners: Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionists, United Torah Judaism, Shas and Amcha Yisrael, are polling at 49 to 51 seats, with Netanyahu seeking to extend his time as the nation's longest-serving prime minister.
The opposition and challengers: Yashar's Gadi Eisenkot, backed by an informal bloc including Beyachad, The Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu, is polling at 52 to 55 seats. Several opposition parties are running on a platform of an independent national inquiry into the failures that allowed the October 7 attacks.
Smaller and Palestinian-led parties: The Joint List and the United Arab List, together with other minor groups holding an estimated 14 to 19 seats, are likely to hold considerable influence. Ra'am has said it wants to join or influence a government, while The Joint List's position differs, and neither bloc is projected to reach 61 without their support.
What to Watch
- Final seat counts for Yashar and Likud, which will determine who has the first chance to build a coalition.
- The opening of coalition negotiations and any post-election defections from smaller parties.
- Whether Mansour Abbas's United Arab List is approached by either bloc, and on what terms.