Israel's mainstream parties vote with far right on Palestinian issues, analysis shows

Why This Matters

• The October 27 election will determine the composition of Israel's next government, but voters may find limited choice on core policy questions regarding Palestinians.
• Broad cross-party agreement on annexation and rejection of Palestinian statehood reduces the likelihood of a change in policy regardless of who wins.
• The findings challenge the narrative that opposition parties offer a clear alternative to Netanyahu's coalition on the Palestinian issue.

Background

Israel's political spectrum has long been defined more by the conflict with Palestinians than by economics. The left historically favoured territorial compromise and negotiations, while the right opposed a Palestinian state and supported settlements. Over the past two decades, the spectrum has shifted rightward, with once-fringe positions becoming mainstream. No single party has ever won an outright majority, meaning coalition governments include multiple parties with competing demands. The outgoing coalition, formed after the November 2022 election, was Israel's most right-wing to date, including Likud, ultra-Orthodox parties, and the far-right Religious Zionism alliance.

Key Perspectives

Netanyahu's coalition and far-right partners: The government has advanced legislation rejecting Palestinian statehood and backing annexation. Far-right leaders Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir hold powerful ministerial posts and have used the threat of quitting to shape policy. Centrist and right-wing opposition (Yesh Atid, National Unity, Yisrael Beiteinu): These parties campaign as alternatives to Netanyahu but have voted with the coalition on key Palestinian-related legislation. They oppose a two-state solution and largely support settlement expansion, though some differ on judicial reform and ultra-Orthodox military exemptions. Arab-led parties and Democrats: The only consistent opposition bloc, representing Palestinian citizens of Israel and Jewish leftists. They support a two-state solution and oppose the occupation but have limited influence given their small seat count.

What to Watch

• Whether any opposition party campaigns on a platform that breaks from the consensus on Palestinian statehood.
• The coalition-building mathematics after October 27: if small far-right parties hold the balance of power, further annexation moves are likely.
• Changes in Israeli public opinion, which has hardened sharply since October 7, 2023, and could shift again depending on security developments.