Why This Matters
- The alliance could significantly alter the balance of power in eastern DRC, potentially prolonging or intensifying the conflict.
- It complicates ongoing peace efforts, which have repeatedly failed to resolve fighting between government forces and armed groups.
- The involvement of a former head of state lends political weight to the rebel movement, making a negotiated settlement more complex.
Background
Joseph Kabila was president of the DRC from 2001 to 2019. The M23 is one of many rebel groups operating in eastern DRC, a region plagued by conflict over resources, ethnic tensions and weak state control. Several peace initiatives have been attempted, including agreements with various armed groups, but none have produced lasting stability.
Key Perspectives
Kabila and M23 coalition: They aim to challenge the government in Kinshasa, portraying themselves as a political-military force seeking change.
DRC government: The government has previously labelled M23 as a terrorist group and is unlikely to accept the coalition as a legitimate political actor.
Regional and international actors: Neighbouring countries and international bodies have often supported peace processes but have struggled to enforce ceasefire agreements. Many fear the coalition will further destabilise the region.
What to Watch
- Whether the coalition launches new military offensives against government forces.
- The response of the African Union and United Nations peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO) to the alliance.
- Any signs of internal divisions or external backing for the new coalition.