Residents of Kibera, one of Nairobi's largest informal settlements, are living in fear as forecasters warn that a strong El Niño weather phenomenon could bring flooding during Kenya's short rainy season. Floods earlier this year killed more than 60 people across the country.
Agnes Shikoli, a 62-year-old fruit seller, still bears the scars of the long rainy season's floods in March: a broken television in the corner of her tiny house, and the memory of her sister Beatrice Khalayi, who she says died of electrocution after her house flooded. Now, with the short rainy season beginning, Shikoli is afraid.
"I feel like it can kill us. These houses aren't made of stone," she told the BBC. "They can fall on us, or the water can drown us." Her home sits just a couple of metres from the Ngong River in Kibera, a densely populated area that is on the frontline of preparations for El Niño's potential impact.
Forecasters warn that this year could see one of the strongest El Niño events on record, bringing extreme weather to many parts of the world. In southern Kenya, that means rains even more intense than usual. A regional forecast from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) said in September that there was an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026.
The Nairobi County disaster management chief, Bramwell Simiyu, told the BBC that drainage systems have been "untouched for many years" and that unclogging them will save lives. He noted that the city's drainage system was developed 30 years ago to serve about 2.5 million residents, but the daytime population is now about 7 million, and the night-time population about 5.5 million. He said investment of up to $192 million is needed to upgrade the sewerage and drainage system entirely, but there is little sign the cash-strapped national government or city council can raise that money.
Simiyu said that up to about 100,000 people in low-income settlements could be at risk in a worst-case scenario. Moderate projections suggest about 5,000 households, or 20,000 people, may be at risk. Anyone forced to leave their homes will be relocated to 167 designated holding grounds where relief food and supplies will be distributed, he said.
Weather forecaster Jemima Gacheru told the BBC that temperature conditions in the Indian Ocean now are similar to those during the 1997–1998 El Niño, which caused widespread flooding and destruction in Somalia and Kenya. "For this season we have a very strong El Niño already in play in the Pacific and then we have a positive Indian Ocean dipole," she said. "We expect to have some enhanced rainfall over several parts of the country."
The UN's migration body, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), has warned that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year, mostly because of the predicted floods.
In neighbouring Somalia, the country's disaster management agency has warned that 1.2 million people are at risk of displacement caused by extreme weather, including the risk of both floods and drought. The 1998 floods killed 2,000 people in Somalia and forced a further 250,000 to flee their homes, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation. Up to 80% of crops were destroyed in some parts of the country. The UN's famine warning system IPC has warned of increased risk of food insecurity in Somalia due to supply chain issues exacerbated by El Niño.
In Kibera, Shikoli and her family are preparing for the worst. Council officials have told them they should leave their home on the riverbank until the rainy season has passed, but she makes just $2 a day selling groundnuts and fruit from a small stall next to the river. "I want to move," she said, "But I don't have the means. We just have to persevere and leave it to God."
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Nearly 900,000 people in Kenya could be displaced by predicted floods, with the most vulnerable in informal settlements like Kibera facing loss of life and property.
- The El Niño event, compared to the devastating 1997-1998 floods, threatens to worsen existing crises of poverty, inadequate housing, and weak infrastructure across East Africa.
- Food security in Somalia and other parts of Africa is at risk from both floods and drought, potentially deepening humanitarian emergencies.
Background
El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather worldwide, often bringing heavy rains to East Africa and drought to other regions. The 1997-1998 El Niño caused widespread flooding and destruction in Somalia and Kenya, killing thousands and displacing hundreds of thousands. Kenya's short rainy season typically runs from October to December, with November as the peak rainfall month. The country is still recovering from floods earlier this year that killed more than 60 people.
Key Perspectives
Agnes Shikoli, Kibera resident: Describes her fear of drowning or being crushed by her house, and says she wants to move but lacks the means. "We just have to persevere and leave it to God."
Bramwell Simiyu, Nairobi County disaster management chief: Says drainage systems are out of date and that unclogging them will save lives. He warns that up to 100,000 people could be at risk in low-income settlements.
Jemima Gacheru, weather forecaster: Explains that the current El Niño, combined with a positive Indian Ocean dipole, is expected to bring enhanced rainfall over several parts of the country.
IOM (UN migration body): Warns that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year, mostly because of predicted floods.
Somalia's disaster management agency: Warns that 1.2 million people are at risk of displacement caused by extreme weather, including floods and drought.
What to Watch
- Whether the heavy rains predicted for October–December 2026 materialise, especially in November, the peak rainfall month.
- The success of the government's Climate Worx programme and other drainage-clearing efforts in Nairobi, and whether the city's infrastructure can handle the rains.
- The response in Somalia, where food security and displacement risks are already high, and whether international aid is mobilised.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedThe headline says Kenyans fear flooding as an El Niño threat looms over Nairobi’s informal settlements.BBC News: “'It can kill us': Kenyans fear impact of El Niño with floods predicted.”
- Partly supportedResidents of Kibera and other informal settlements are bracing for possible heavy rains and displacement.BBC News: “Floods disproportionately affect informal settlements in Nairobi, especially those near rivers, like Kibera and Mathare.”
- Partly supportedKibera is one of Nairobi’s largest informal settlements.BBC News: “Kibera, one of the largest informal settlements in Kenya.”
- SupportedFloods earlier this year killed more than 60 people across Kenya.BBC News: “She was among more than 60 people across the country who lost their lives.”
- SupportedShikoli said, “I feel like it can kill us. These houses aren't made of stone. They can fall on us, or the water can drown us.”BBC News: ““I feel like it can kill us. These houses aren't made of stone,” says the 62-year-old. “They can fall on us, or the water can drown us.””
- SupportedForecasters warned that this year could bring one of the strongest El Niño events on record.BBC News: “Forecasters have warned that this year could see one of the strongest on record, bringing extreme weather to many parts of the world.”
- SupportedThe regional forecast said in September there was an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026.BBC News: “A regional forecast from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) warned in September that there was “an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026”.”
- SupportedSimiyu said drainage systems had been “untouched for many years” and that unclogging them would save lives.BBC News: “The Nairobi County disaster management chief, Bramwell Simiyu tells the BBC that drainage systems have been “untouched for many years” and that removing the rubbish from them will save lives.”
- SupportedSimiyu said up to about 100,000 people in low-income settlements could be at risk in a worst-case scenario.BBC News: ““Our worst case scenario looking at low-income settlements is that up to about 100,000 people are at risk,” Simiyu says.”
- SupportedGacheru said, “For this season we have a very strong El Niño already in play in the Pacific and then we have a positive Indian Ocean dipole. We expect to have some enhanced rainfall over several parts of the country.”BBC News: ““For this season we have a very strong El Niño already in play in the Pacific and then we have a positive Indian Ocean dipole,” Gacheru said. “We expect to have some enhanced rainfall over several parts of the country.””
- SupportedThe IOM warned that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year, mostly because of predicted floods.BBC News: “The UN's migration body the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has warned that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year, mostly because of the predicted floods.”
- SupportedShikoli said, “But I don't have the means. We just have to persevere and leave it to God.”BBC News: ““I want to move,” she says. “But I don't have the means. “We just have to persevere and leave it to God.””