Labor, Coalition and One Nation lay out rival migration cuts ahead of election

Policies range from a three-year net negative rate to a temporary halving of arrivals

By LineZotpaper

Published6 October 2026

Read Time2 min

The Coalition has unveiled its long-awaited migration plan, completing a three-way contest with the federal government and One Nation over how deeply to cut arrivals. One Nation is promising net negative migration for its first three years, the Coalition would temporarily halve net migration to 100,000 a year, and Labor is committed to returning to a rate of 225,000 a year by 2028.

The Coalition's migration policy completes the set of competing proposals now on offer from the government, the opposition and One Nation, which has climbed in the polls largely on its promise to drive immigration to its lowest levels in Australia's history.

Migration-driven population growth in Australia since 2019 has been more than double that of the United Kingdom and three times that of Germany, according to the figures behind the debate.

One Nation has vowed to achieve net negative migration for the first three years before settling at a long-term ceiling of below 130,000. The party says its plan would cut net migration by 750,000 in three years, providing "breathing space" for housing construction to catch up. Spread evenly, that would amount to a net migration rate of negative 25,000 based on Treasury forecasts.

The Coalition proposes to more than halve net migration for two years to 100,000, rising to 130,000 in the third year and 160,000 in the fourth. Thereafter, net migration would be tied to the pace of housing completions.

The federal government, through Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, has announced measures to achieve a net migration rate of 225,000 a year by 2028. That figure was already forecast in the federal budget, though actual migration has repeatedly come in higher than forecast. The government has now acknowledged net overseas migration as a hard target it is committed to reaching.

Every attempt to lower migration removes workers from some sector, risks hitting already slow economic growth, and potentially deepens workforce shortages in industries such as health and aged care.

One Nation's plan would restrict international student visa places to just over 100,000 a year, compared with about 290,000 granted last financial year. Visas for families of international students and skilled migrants would be ended almost entirely, with an estimated 46,000 family and dependent visas granted last year refused except for roughly 6,500 partners and children of postgraduate researchers. The party has also explicitly linked its policy to ending multiculturalism.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Migration has become a central election battleground, with One Nation rising in polls on a promise of historically low immigration.
Deeper cuts risk workforce shortages in health and aged care and could weaken already slow economic growth.
The outcome will shape population growth, housing pressures and the international education sector.

Background

Migration-driven population growth in Australia has run well above comparable countries since 2019, more than double the rate of the United Kingdom and three times that of Germany. The federal government once treated net overseas migration as an indicator but now describes 225,000 a year as a hard target it is committed to meeting. Housing pressures and cost-of-living concerns have pushed migration policy to the centre of political debate.

Key Perspectives

Labor: Supports a return to the longer-term trend of 225,000 a year by 2028, a figure already in budget forecasts, and argues against deeper cuts in later years. The Coalition: Positions itself as offering a temporary, substantial reduction, with a two-year cap of 100,000 before migration is tied to housing completion rates. One Nation: Demands the sharpest cuts, including net negative migration for three years, a ceiling below 130,000, tighter student visa limits and an end to most family and dependent visas, explicitly linking the policy to ending multiculturalism. Critics: Point out that every cut removes workers from the economy, risking slower growth and worsening shortages in sectors already in need such as health and aged care.

What to Watch

Whether actual net migration again exceeds official forecasts, as it has repeatedly done.
The details of the Coalition's proposed link between migration levels and housing completions.
The effect of tighter student visa limits on universities and the broader international education industry.
The skilled migration component, where the most recent data showed fewer than half of visas granted under the skilled worker program going to the workers Australia is seeking, though the full detail has not yet been released.

Sources

Here's how Labor, the Coalition and One Nation's migration cuts compare — Just In