A DemosAU poll has Labor narrowing the Coalition's two-party lead to 52-48 in Victoria, two months out from the state's November 28 election, while fresh federal polling continues to show strong primary support for One Nation across the country.
Conducted from September 10-20 with a sample of 1,020 voters, the DemosAU poll for the Herald Sun gives the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (down two points), Labor 25% (up two), One Nation 20% (down two), the Greens 14% (up one) and all others 11% (up one). After preferences, the Coalition leads Labor 52-48, a three-point gain for Labor since early August.
Premier Ben Carroll's net approval rating rose two points to -14, Liberal leader Jess Wilson's fell three points to +8, and One Nation leader Warren Pickering's rose one point to -18.
Writing for The Conversation, election analyst Adrian Beaumont said this was Labor's best result in a Victorian poll since the leadership change from Jacinta Allan to Carroll. The Poll Bludger's BludgerTrack aggregate has the Coalition ahead 51.5-48.5 after preferences, projecting a bare majority of 45 seats in the 88-seat lower house, with Labor on 25, One Nation 15 and the Greens three.
At the federal level, a YouGov poll for News24 conducted September 15-21 from a sample of 1,471 gave One Nation 27% of the primary vote (down three), Labor 26% (steady) and the Coalition 21% (up three). The combined One Nation and Coalition primary vote in that poll was 48%, while a Morgan poll taken about the same time as the previous federal Newspoll recorded 47%.
Newspoll aggregate data for July to September indicates One Nation now holds an 11-point primary vote lead over Labor in Queensland. The Coalition has fallen to fourth place in South Australia, behind the Greens, One Nation and Labor.
Internationally, the far-right AfD came close to winning a majority of seats at the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election in Germany, while left-wing parties won two state elections on September 20.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Victorian election on November 28 will determine whether the Coalition can unseat a Labor government, and these numbers suggest the race has narrowed since the leadership change.
- Federal polling shows One Nation is a major force, with implications for future federal seat contests, particularly in Queensland and South Australia.
- The combination of state and federal polling offers an early read on the political climate heading into the next federal election cycle.
Background
Australian elections use preferential voting, and polling organisations typically report primary votes alongside a two-party-preferred measure that distributes preferences between Labor and the Coalition. Minor parties such as One Nation and the Greens have won a significant share of the primary vote in recent years, making preference flows central to election outcomes.
The Victorian election comes amid ongoing pressure on Labor governments nationally, while the federal Coalition has been struggling in some states. One Nation, a right-wing populist party, has historically drawn support from voters disaffected with the major parties, and its recent polling strength has reshaped competition in seats across Queensland.
Key Perspectives
Labor: The narrowing of the two-party gap provides some relief, and the party will hope the trend continues as the campaign enters its final two months. However, Labor remains behind in both the DemosAU poll and BludgerTrack.
Coalition: The Liberal-National opposition retains the lead and, according to BludgerTrack's projections, is on track to form a bare majority government. The focus will be on holding its primary vote as preferences are distributed.
One Nation: With around 20% of the primary vote in Victoria and higher numbers federally, One Nation has become a decisive force. The party will be looking to convert primary support into seats, though preference arrangements will be critical.
The Greens: On 14% in Victoria, the Greens remain a significant left-of-centre option and could hold the balance of power in a hung parliament, a scenario the current projection does not require.
What to Watch
- The next major Victorian opinion poll, which will show whether Labor's gain is a one-off or the start of a trend.
- BludgerTrack's seat projection: any change to the current bare-majority projection for the Coalition could signal a hung parliament.
- One Nation's primary vote in Queensland and the federal implications of its dominance there.
- The final campaign period ahead of the November 28 election, including preference deals and leader debates.