A fresh opinion poll has put Victorian Labor's primary vote at 18 per cent, behind the Coalition and One Nation, just three weeks out from the November 28 state election. The DemosAU/PremierNational survey has sparked serious concerns inside the Labor caucus, with MPs questioning Premier Ben Carroll's campaign strategy.
The Resolve Political Monitor for The Age put Labor's primary vote at 22 per cent, its lowest in almost two years, and reported Carroll's personal likeability rating had dropped to minus 16.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said Carroll's leadership had failed to stem the party's decline. "Any hope Labor had that the change to Carroll would turn their fortunes around has been dashed," he told The Age. "His personal ratings and Labor's vote have only gone one way since he became leader – down."
The DemosAU poll, published by the Herald Sun, put the Coalition on 33 per cent and One Nation on 21 per cent, with the Greens improving to 17 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition led Labor 56-44.
Several Labor MPs, who were not authorised to speak publicly, told Guardian Australia that many in the caucus were questioning the party's strategy. One MP said: "Caucus is really angry and deflated, because this is all happening because of him," referring to Carroll. Another described the campaign's focus on crime as a "diabolically stupid strategy".
Carroll announced a $204m plan to enable judges to sentence low- and mid-level youth offenders to a new rehabilitation detention program and a $70m plan to recruit 200 more police reservists. He has also matched Opposition Leader Jess Wilson's commitment to introduce Aidan's Law, named after a 22-year-old fatally stabbed at Mernda station, to toughen sentencing for attacks on people who intervene to protect others.
The Opposition Leader said her party had a focus on "getting tough on crime" and has not ruled out relying on One Nation for confidence and supply.
Carroll agreed to the original offer of a three-way debate with Wilson and One Nation's Victorian leader Warren Pickering, but was refusing to debate Wilson head-to-head. The Resolve survey found almost half of voters (48 per cent) were comfortable with the Liberal and National parties governing with One Nation.
Pauline Hanson has rejected reports that her former national campaign director Sean Black, jailed for rape in 2018, continues secretly to work for One Nation in Victoria. "The day that I sacked him [Sean Black] that was the day he finished up," she told the Australian Financial Review.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Labor has governed Victoria for 12 years; the polls suggest a historic wipeout that would dramatically reshape the state's political landscape.
- The rise of One Nation to a serious third force fractures the traditional two-party system and raises the prospect of minority or coalition government.
- The election outcome will test whether crime and cost-of-living concerns can outweigh Labor's long incumbency.
Background
Victoria will vote on November 28. Labor, led by Ben Carroll since July 2026, has held power since 2014. The opposition Liberal–National Coalition is led by Jess Wilson. One Nation has surged in the polls this year, complicating the contest and forcing both major parties to define their relationship with the populist party. The Resolve Political Monitor is published by The Age, while the DemosAU/PremierNational survey is published by the Herald Sun.
Key Perspectives
- Ben Carroll and Labor: Publicly warns that a Coalition government would necessarily involve One Nation, while privately MPs question the campaign's crime focus and Carroll’s leadership. Carroll has said he would 'throw the keys back' rather than govern with the Greens.
- Jess Wilson and the Coalition: Confident of majority government. Rates crime as a top priority and has not ruled out accepting One Nation’s support for confidence and supply. The Resolve poll put her personal likeability at +24.
- One Nation (Pauline Hanson): Denies former campaign director Sean Black remains secretly employed in Victoria.
- Pollsters (Jim Reed, George Hasanakos): Both surveys indicate strong preference flows from Labor and the Greens to the Coalition, giving the Coalition a clear path to a majority despite its own primary vote being below 40 per cent.
What to Watch
- Thursday night's televised leaders' debate and whether Carroll can force a shift in momentum.
- How Greens and One Nation preferences land on election night, which will decide many seats.
- Internal Labor dynamics: whether open rebellion or a course correction emerges in the final three weeks.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 2 sources: 10 supported.
Show each claim
- Partly supportedReed said, “His personal ratings and Labor's vote have only gone one way since he became leader – down.”Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: ““He may not be hated in the same way as Allan, but his personal ratings and Labor’s vote have only gone once way since he became leader – down.””
- Partly supportedReed told The Age the quoted remarks about Labor’s prospects.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “Resolve founder Jim Reed said the results of this month’s survey, just three weeks out from election day, were ominous for Victoria’s governing party of the past 12 years. “Any hope Labor had that the change to Carroll would turn their fortunes around has been dashed,” Reed said.”
- SupportedA fresh poll puts Labor behind One Nation, with MPs questioning the campaign.World news | The Guardian: “Victorian Labor MPs are both sceptical and seriously concerned about a new poll ahead of the state election showing the party trailing third behind One Nation, with its primary vote at an all-time low of just 18%.”
- SupportedTwo surveys show Labor trailing in third place.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “This leaves Labor, on a statewide basis, running third in a historic three-way contest just weeks out from the next election.”
- SupportedThe DemosAU/PremierNational poll puts Labor’s primary vote at 18%, behind the Coalition and One Nation, three weeks before the November 28 election.World news | The Guardian: “The DemosAU/PremierNational, first published by the Herald Sun on Monday, showed Labor’s primary vote share has crashed seven points to 18%, putting it in third place behind the Coalition’s 33% and One Nation’s 21%.”
- SupportedThe DemosAU poll result sparked serious concerns among Labor MPs, who questioned the party’s strategy.World news | The Guardian: “But the result has sparked serious concerns among the Labor caucus, even though some MPs are sceptical about the 18% figure.”
- SupportedResolve put Labor’s primary vote at 22%, its lowest in almost two years, and Carroll’s likeability at minus 16.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “The survey of 1000 respondents conducted between November 2 and November 7 ... put primary support for Labor at just 22 per cent. This matches the nadir recorded by former premier Jacinta Allan in January 2025.”
- SupportedThe DemosAU poll put the Coalition at 33%, One Nation at 21%, the Greens at 17%, and the Coalition ahead of Labor 56–44 on two-party preferred.World news | The Guardian: “Labor’s primary vote share has crashed seven points to 18%, putting it in third place behind the Coalition’s 33% and One Nation’s 21%. At the same time, the Greens improved their primary vote to 17%, an increase of three points since September. It means the Coalition now leads Labor on a two-party preferred basis 56-44”
- SupportedSeveral MPs told Guardian Australia that many in the caucus were questioning the party’s strategy.World news | The Guardian: “Several Labor MPs, unauthorised to speak publicly, have told Guardian Australia there are many in the caucus questioning their party’s strategy.”
- SupportedOne MP said the caucus was “really angry and deflated” and blamed Carroll; another called the crime focus a “diabolically stupid strategy”.World news | The Guardian: ““Caucus is really angry and deflated, because this is all happening because of him,” one MP said. ... Another MP said the focus on crime was “diabolically stupid strategy””
- SupportedCarroll announced a $204m youth rehabilitation detention plan and a $70m plan to recruit 200 police reservists.World news | The Guardian: “On Sunday, Carroll announced a $204m plan to enable judges to sentence low- and mid-level youth offenders to a new rehabilitation detention program, while on Monday he announced $70m to recruit 200 more police reservists”
- SupportedHanson rejected reports that Sean Black continued secretly working for One Nation in Victoria and said, “The day that I sacked him [Sean Black] that was the day he finished up.”World news | The Guardian: “She told the Australian Financial Review on Monday “the day that I sacked him [Sean Black] that was the day he finished up”.”