Labor's working holiday visa cut threatens regional seats, experts warn

Number of spots slashed from 31,000 to 5,000 as backpackers reconsider working in Far North Queensland

By LineZotpaper
Published
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The federal government's decision to sharply reduce working holiday visa spots has left backpackers in regional Australia uncertain about their future and could cost Labor seats at the next election, political analysts say.

The number of third-year working holiday visa places has fallen from 31,000 to just over 5,000 under changes introduced by the Albanese government. Backpackers who have spent six months working in regional areas, such as Far North Queensland's tourism and agricultural sectors, now face a lottery for a place.

Italian backpacker Rocco Raseri, who completed six months as a chef in Cairns, said the uncertainty meant he would not have taken the work if he had known his spot was not guaranteed. "Probably just travelling in Australia to see as much as I can see, instead of staying six months in Cairns," he said.

Australian National University political marketing expert Andrew Hughes said the policy put regional MPs in a tight spot. "It creates that wedge and that perception that the government has forgotten about the regions," he said. Dr Hughes identified several vulnerable seats including Lingiari in the NT, Bullwinkel in WA, and regional seats in Tasmania and NSW. He said Queensland was most at risk, particularly the far northern seat of Leichhardt, held by Labor's Matt Smith on a 9.5 per cent swing. "The rise of One Nation" was also a factor, he added.

Labor gained seven new Queensland seats at the last election, lifting its total to 12 out of 30, though the LNP narrowly won the statewide vote.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The visa cap directly affects the labour supply for regional tourism and agriculture, which rely on backpackers during peak seasons.
  • Labor won several regional seats in 2025, and a perception of neglecting the regions could reverse those gains.
  • The policy change may deter future backpackers from undertaking regional work, deepening workforce shortages outside cities.

Background

Australia's working holiday visa program allows young people to work and travel for up to two years, with a third year available after completing six months of specified regional work. The government reduced the number of third-year visa places as part of broader migration management measures. Regional businesses and local economies have long depended on backpacker labour, particularly in horticulture and hospitality.

Key Perspectives

Backpackers: Face reduced certainty and may choose to travel rather than work regionally, undermining the program's original purpose of filling labour gaps. Regional employers: Fear labour shortages as fewer backpackers commit to six-month stints without a guaranteed visa pathway. Critics/Skeptics: The Coalition and One Nation may capitalise on the perception that Labor has forgotten the regions; the LNP already narrowly won the Queensland statewide vote at the last election.

What to Watch

  • The performance of Labor's Matt Smith in the seat of Leichhardt at the next federal election.
  • Whether the government adjusts the cap or introduces other measures to address regional concerns.
  • The rise of minor parties such as One Nation in regional Queensland.

Sources

Zotpaper

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