Labour’s flagship reforms to special education in England are at risk of unravelling as parents rush to secure support for their children before the system changes, according to new analysis from the Institute for Government thinktank.
The Institute for Government (IfG) warns that the government’s plans to largely replace education, health and care plans (EHCPs) with more widespread support in mainstream schools may be too optimistic and take longer to complete than its 2030 timeline.
The report calls on ministers to review the timetable for the changes, cautioning that if they do not act they "risk basing both their reforms and spending plans on assumptions that the system cannot deliver."
The warning follows a surge in EHCP applications reported by councils and schools, with one school describing the level as "unreal" compared with previous years. Several councils project that, at current rates, nearly one in ten pupils will have an EHCP by 2029.
Amber Dellar, author of the IfG report, said the long rollout of the changes created a "moral hazard" that encouraged parents to apply for EHCPs now rather than wait for the new system. "There’s a ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic, as schools and parents have an incentive to secure EHCPs before they are phased out, because there’s a lot of uncertainty about what these new specialist packages of support will contain and who will be eligible for them," she said.
The government’s plans add new resources to reduce the need for families to seek EHCPs, but Dellar said budgets for additional special educational needs and disabilities (Send) support would be eroded if EHCP demand exceeded forecasts. Councils say they must keep issuing EHCPs until existing legislation is repealed.
"The government has a lot riding on the reforms taking effect before they fully kick in – its spending plans for the parliament have some assumptions about savings baked in that are based in particular on them being able to slow the growth or the trajectory of numbers of pupils with EHCPs," Dellar said. "It has a lot politically riding on it as well, and of course in terms of the wellbeing of the children and families involved."
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The reforms are a flagship Labour policy with a 2030 deadline; delays or failures could undermine the government's education agenda and spending plans.
- A surge in EHCP applications could strain council budgets and schools, affecting the quality of support for children with special educational needs across England.
- The outcome shapes the future of special education provision, determining whether families rely on individualised plans or new mainstream support packages.
Background
Education, health and care plans (EHCPs) are legally enforceable documents that set out the support a child with special educational needs and disabilities (Send) should receive. They are agreed between parents and local authorities and can be enforced at specialist tribunals. The Labour government has proposed largely replacing EHCPs with more widespread support in mainstream schools, aiming to reduce the need for individualised plans. The changes are due to be phased in over several years, with a target of completing them by 2030.
Key Perspectives
Parents and families: Many are rushing to secure EHCPs before the system changes, driven by uncertainty about what the new support packages will contain and who will be eligible. Their priority is guaranteed, enforceable support for their children.
Councils and schools: They report a surge in applications, calling the current level "unreal" compared with previous years. They are obligated to keep issuing EHCPs until the existing legislation is repealed, which could overwhelm their resources and budgets.
The Institute for Government and experts: The thinktank argues the rollout timeline is too optimistic and that the government's spending plans assume a slowdown in EHCP growth that may not materialise. It urges a review of the timetable to avoid basing reforms on undeliverable assumptions.
The government: It has framed the reforms as a way to provide more equitable and widespread support in mainstream schools, potentially reducing reliance on individualised plans. However, it faces political and financial risks if the surge in applications continues.
What to Watch
- Whether the government responds to the IfG's call for a timetable and whether it adjusts its spending assumptions accordingly.
- The rate of EHCP applications over the coming months; if projections of one in ten pupils by 2029 hold, pressure on the system will intensify.
- Any announcements about the details of the new support packages, particularly eligibility criteria, which could ease or worsen the "use it before you lose it" dynamic.