Lebanese Skeptical Israeli Election Will Change Occupation of South

Analysts say policy towards Lebanon unlikely to shift regardless of who wins

By LineZotpaper AI staff

Published24 October 2026

Read Time2 min

As Israel prepares for its October 27 election, many in Lebanon doubt that a change in government will alter Israel’s policies towards its neighbor, including the ongoing occupation of southern Lebanon. Despite the possibility of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu being replaced by a challenger like Gadi Eisenkot, Lebanese residents and analysts express scepticism that any meaningful change will occur.

Beirut residents interviewed by Al Jazeera expressed little hope that the Israeli election will bring relief. Fouad Debs, a lawyer, said: “I don’t think anything major – or at all – will change for Lebanon even if there’s a change in [Israeli] leadership.” He added that any changes would be small and aimed at appearing reasonable.

Researcher Karim Safieddine noted that candidates are not promising withdrawal or addressing the occupation as a mistake. “The general Israeli establishment looks at Lebanon as its prize,” he said. The sentiment is backed by a June 2026 poll by Lebanese American University professor Jad Melki, which found that 87 percent of Lebanese view Israel as an enemy, with 54 percent supporting diplomacy and 35 percent preferring armed resistance.

The primary challenger to Netanyahu is Gadi Eisenkot, a former general and architect of the Dahiyeh Doctrine, which involves disproportionate force. Lebanese analyst Elia Ayoub said Eisenkot and other challengers attack Netanyahu from the right on security issues, not on humanitarian grounds. “There’s a profoundly dehumanising discourse that is completely normalised in Israeli society,” Ayoub said, suggesting policy towards Lebanon is unlikely to change.

Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting since October 2023, with escalations in September 2024 and March 2025. A US-brokered framework agreement in June aimed at Israeli withdrawal, but Israel continues its occupation and demolition campaign in southern Lebanon. Ayoub stressed the importance of the US midterm elections on November 3, which could affect Israeli policies towards the region.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Israeli elections may not change occupation, affecting over a million displaced Lebanese
The election outcome could impact US-brokered withdrawal agreements
The US midterm elections may be more pivotal for regional policy

Background

The Israeli election on October 27 sees Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing challenges from the right, including Gadi Eisenkot, who has been involved in conflicts with Lebanon. Since October 2023, Israel has had escalating clashes with Hezbollah, leading to a US-brokered framework agreement in June 2026. However, Israel continues to occupy southern Lebanon, demolishing homes and displacing over a million people.

What to Watch

US midterm elections on November 3, which could influence Israeli policy
Whether Israel continues its demolition campaign in southern Lebanon
Potential escalation if candidates like Eisenkot advocate for more aggressive tactics

Sources

Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, end occupation of south · Al Jazeera

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 7 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedLebanese are sceptical that Israel’s election will end its occupation of southern Lebanon.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, end occupation of south. Beirut, Lebanon – As Israel’s October 27 election nears, so does the possibility that the government that has overseen the invasion and reoccupation of southern Lebanon could be deposed. But for people in Lebanon, optimism that a change in the Israeli government will bode well for Israel’s neighbours is low .”
SupportedAnalysts say Israeli policy towards Lebanon is unlikely to shift whoever wins.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “But in Lebanon, the general feeling is that whoever replaces Netanyahu is unlikely to deviate from the current policy of occupation and destruction.”
SupportedIsrael’s election is on October 27, and Gadi Eisenkot is a possible challenger to Benjamin Netanyahu.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “As Israel’s October 27 election nears, so does the possibility that the government that has overseen the invasion and reoccupation of southern Lebanon could be deposed.”
Partly supportedBeirut residents interviewed by Al Jazeera expressed little hope for change.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““I don’t think anything major – or at all – will change for Lebanon even if there’s a change in [Israeli] leadership,” said Beirut resident Fouad Debs.”
SupportedFouad Debs said, “I don’t think anything major – or at all – will change for Lebanon even if there’s a change in [Israeli] leadership.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““I don’t think anything major – or at all – will change for Lebanon even if there’s a change in [Israeli] leadership,” said Beirut resident Fouad Debs.”
Partly supportedDebs said any changes would be small and aimed at appearing reasonable.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““Any internal change might lead to small, insignificant changes just to show the outside world that Israeli society and politics are not messed up or evil,” added the lawyer.”
Partly supportedKarim Safieddine said no candidates were promising withdrawal or addressing southern Lebanon as a crisis or mistake.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““No one is promising withdrawal, and no one is addressing south Lebanon as a crisis or a mistake,” he added”
SupportedA June 2026 poll found 87 percent viewed Israel as an enemy, 54 percent supported diplomacy and 35 percent preferred armed resistance.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “In the study, 54 percent of Lebanese polled said they supported diplomacy with Israel, while 35 percent preferred armed resistance. But the poll also found that regardless of the tactic, Lebanese views of Israel were overwhelmingly negative, with 87 percent of those polled considering it “as their enemy”.”
SupportedGadi Eisenkot is Netanyahu’s primary challenger, a former general and the architect of the Dahiyeh Doctrine, which uses disproportionate force.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “the primary challenge to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ... appears to be Gadi Eisenkot”
Partly supportedElia Ayoub said Eisenkot and other challengers attack Netanyahu from the right on security, not humanitarian grounds.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “Lebanese analysts said that, although Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza, Eisenkot and other challengers have mostly attacked him on domestic issues and from the right, calling him soft on issues of security. “Those that have come forward as candidates in Israeli elections criticise Netanyahu and his handling of the war,” Elia Ayoub, a Lebanese researcher and podcaster, told Al Jazeera. “They’re not criticising him based on any kind of humanitarianism or anything [related to] human rights.””
Partly supportedIsrael and Hezbollah escalated their fighting in September 2024 and March 2025.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “Israel has twice escalated the conflict – first in September 2024 and then in March this year, following the start of the United States-Israeli war on Iran.”
SupportedA US-brokered framework agreement in June aimed at Israeli withdrawal, but Israel continues its occupation and demolition campaign in southern Lebanon.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “In June, following direct negotations that were rejected by Hezbollah, Israel and the Lebanese government signed a US-brokered framework agreement that included the goal of securing the phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon. Still, Israel continues to occupy large parts of its neighbour’s south, where it has systematically demolished homes and infrastructure in dozens of villages”