Liberal preselection intervention in Pakenham sparks local campaign revolt

The Liberal Party is facing a backlash from members in the must-win seat of Pakenham, who say they are unwilling to volunteer in the upcoming election campaign after party chiefs sidelined them from handpicking their candidate.

Pakenham, in Melbourne's outer south-east, is held by Labor's Emma Vulin by just 0.39 per cent, making it one of the most marginal seats at November's state election. In 2022, Liberal candidate David Farrelly secured a swing of 1.8 per cent but fell short.

Farrelly, a former long-time chair of Neighbourhood Watch in Cardinia, sought to run again this year, as did Maroondah City Council IT worker Monty Sodhi. But the party's state executive decided against holding a local preselection and instead intervened to tap soccer club volunteer Radmila Dyson as its candidate. Her preselection was confirmed on August 15, nine months after preselection applications closed in December.

Labor has chosen 23-year-old Alessandra Soliven to replace Vulin, who will not recontest the seat after being diagnosed with motor neurone disease. The Liberal campaign also faces a challenge from One Nation's Victorian leader Warren Pickering, as Pauline Hanson's party seeks to capitalise on its surging popularity to win Victorian lower house seats for the first time.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Pakenham is a must-win seat for the Liberals, held by Labor by just 0.39 per cent, so volunteer numbers could decide the outcome.
A public preselection dispute risks demobilising local branches and handing an advantage to Labor and One Nation.
The contest is a test of whether One Nation can translate its national profile into lower house seats in Victoria.

Background

Australian political parties regularly face tension between local preselection and central control. In Victoria, the Liberal state executive has the power to override local party members and install a candidate. When that happens, losing candidates and their supporters sometimes withdraw from campaign work. Pakenham's status as a marginal seat makes this dispute more consequential, and the presence of a high-profile One Nation candidate adds a further wildcard.

Key Perspectives

Local Liberal members: Wanted a local preselection after Farrelly and Sodhi entered the race. After being overruled, they say they are unwilling to volunteer, which could weaken the ground campaign.
State executive: Chose Radmila Dyson and confirmed her preselection on August 15. It may have decided she was a stronger candidate than the local options.
One Nation: Leader Warren Pickering is standing, giving the party a chance to break through in a lower house seat as its popularity rises.
Labor: Alessandra Soliven is defending a very marginal seat with a new candidate after Emma Vulin's retirement due to illness.
Critics and sceptics: A divided local branch could undermine the Liberal vote, while One Nation could split the conservative side and help Labor hold the seat.

What to Watch

Whether local Liberal members follow through on their refusal to campaign.
Polling in Pakenham, especially the two-party preferred result and One Nation's primary vote.
Any statements or interventions from the Victorian Liberal state executive in response to the backlash.
The result on election day, and how it compares with the 2022 swing.

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