LLMs trained to predict their own accuracy learn two distinct types of confidence

Fine-tuned confidence tracks true accuracy on familiar questions but shifts to output consistency on novel topics.

Research Lab
Nicolas Yax · Stefano Palminteri · Pierre-Yves Oudeyer

INSERM · ENS PSL · Inria

Research Digest··2 min read
The authors fine-tuned 10 open-weight LLMs to predict their correctness on factual multiple-choice questions before answering.

The authors investigated what LLMs learn when trained to estimate their own performance (metacognitive monitoring).

Why this paper

From Inria and 2 others

In one line

LLMs trained to predict their own accuracy learn to track output consistency, not true accuracy, on unfamiliar questions.

What we could check

  • ·No code link found
  • ·No weights link found
  • ·No dataset link found
  • ·No compute details found
  • ✓Limitations stated by the authors
  • ·No benchmark numbers found

Observed from the paper text and links we have. Absence here means we did not find it, not that it does not exist.

§

Research Digest

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.