The Albanese government, the Coalition and One Nation have each pledged to reduce net overseas migration, while promising to protect flows of healthcare and seasonal agricultural workers to regional areas. But buried in the 2026 Intergenerational Report released last month are two pages on population trends that paint a worrying picture for much of rural and regional Australia.
According to the report, large parts of regional Australia are forecast to experience lower fertility, lower migration and faster population ageing. Left unchecked, these trends will result in a growing demographic divide, with fewer workers available to support ageing residents and regional businesses.
Research by the Regional Australia Institute, a non-profit think tank, shows the picture is not uniform. Regional cities with populations over 50,000 are expected to keep growing, though not as fast as capital cities. However, over half the population growth in rural Australia since 2017 has come from net overseas migration, dominated by people in their prime working and family-raising years (25-44 year olds, followed by 15-24 year olds). This has helped offset the net loss of young residents who dominate outmigration.
Take international migrants out of the equation, and towns and localities with fewer than 50,000 people are going backwards rapidly. If declining birth rates are also factored in, larger regional cities could suffer the same fate. The agricultural industry and other business groups are advocating against cuts to migration, arguing they are essential for regional economies.
The hollowing out of large parts of regional Australia, the authors argue, will not only create significant disadvantage among those who remain but also challenge the nation's identity as a people that rode to prosperity on the sheep's back.