Indonesia is experiencing its worst fire season on record, with 1.9 million hectares of land burned from January to September, 38 per cent more than the previous worst year in 2019. Satellite hotspot detections were 67 per cent higher over the same period. The fires are fuelled by months of drought from the strong El Nino and underlying climate change, with peatland fires releasing vast greenhouse emissions and shrouding the region in toxic haze.
"Indonesia is one of the places where El Nino events are linked to droughts and bushfires," said Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales. "This time, this strong El Nino event has caused massive disruptions over Indonesia, and with the fires that they are having there, it's just unbelievable."
The resulting air pollution has spread across South-East Asia, prompting Singapore to issue 10 notices under its Transboundary Haze Pollution Act, ordering Indonesian companies to address fires on their land in Kalimantan and Sumatra. Between 17 and 23 per cent of the burned land is peatland, which normally remains too wet to burn but now converts a major carbon sink into emissions.
Peru's anchoveta fishery, which supplies 20 to 25 per cent of global fish meal and fish oil, has collapsed. The government suspended the first fishing season and announced no second season, with the National Fisheries Society warning industrial fishing could remain halted for more than a year. The Panama Canal Authority has had to limit daily transits due to drought, though restrictions were eased slightly last week.
Global sugar prices have risen as El Nino reduces rainfall in Thailand and India, and analysts fear rice crops could be hit hard, threatening food security. The Peterson Institute for International Economics warned that the economic hit could reach $US1 trillion in direct initial losses and at least $US7.2 trillion over five years, with global GDP likely to lose 0.8 per cent. "That gap represents thousands of deferred investment decisions – factories not built, crops not planted, clinics not stocked," the institute's report said.
All models expect the El Nino to peak around November or December and persist into autumn 2027, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. In Australia, daytime and overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average from November to January, with rainfall below average in parts of the far north and the south-east, increasing bushfire risk. Emergency Leaders for Climate Action warned that Australia faces greater risk of bushfires this year and next but is unprepared. Commonwealth Bank analysis estimates a hit of about $13.4 billion to the Australian economy over two years.