Musk says SpaceX could hit $1 trillion revenue in 2028, analysts sceptical

CEO's latest prediction comes hours after quarterly earnings call; JPMorgan forecasts $254 billion for 2027

By LineZotpaper

Published21 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Elon Musk has declared it is “no longer impossible” for SpaceX to generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2028, an even more ambitious timeline than his previous projection of 2030. The claim, made in a post on X, drew immediate scepticism from analysts who said the target would require an implausible 53-fold increase in three years.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has raised the bar for his company’s revenue ambitions, saying on Tuesday that generating $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2028 is “no longer impossible.”

The statement came within hours of SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings webcast, during which Musk said annual recurring revenue could reach between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027.

Musk had previously said in August that SpaceX internally projected $1 trillion in revenue for 2030, with a “non-zero” chance of hitting that figure in 2029. The latest target would require the company to grow its revenue roughly 53-fold from the $19 billion it earned in 2025.

SpaceX, which went public earlier this year, reported nearly $15 billion in revenue for the third quarter, up 161% from the same period in 2025. The company attributed the growth to its super-intelligence division, where revenue surged 830% to $7.6 billion, driven by new cloud services agreements, around $600 million from its recent acquisition of Cursor, and increased adoption of its Grok AI by enterprises.

For context, the two highest-revenue companies globally, Amazon and Walmart, each generated a little over $700 billion in net sales last financial year. Musk’s $1 trillion figure would exceed both by more than 40%.

Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Bank, said the figure would “imply such an enormous pull-forward in demand as to defy credibility.” He added that he would “never say never” about SpaceX reaching $1 trillion in revenue, “but by 2028 I'd say the chance is zero, whatever Elon says!”

JPMorgan, in a post-earnings note, forecast SpaceX would generate $254 billion of revenue in 2027, less than a third of Musk’s aspirational target for the following year.

It remains unclear whether Musk’s $1 trillion figure includes revenue from Tesla, which generated about $95 billion last year. Musk revealed on Tuesday that Tesla and SpaceX have formed committees to explore a potential merger.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Musk’s projection would make SpaceX the highest-revenue company in history within two years, far outpacing Amazon and Walmart.
The claim underscores the high-stakes nature of SpaceX’s expansion beyond rockets into AI and cloud services.
If realised, the revenue would dramatically reshape investor expectations for the newly public company; if not, it risks eroding credibility.

Background

SpaceX has transformed from a private rocket company into a public corporation that now includes Starlink satellite internet, the X social media platform, and an AI division behind the Grok chatbot. Its third-quarter results showed the super-intelligence unit as the main growth engine. Musk has a history of making ambitious predictions that often miss initial deadlines but sometimes prove directionally correct.

Key Perspectives

Elon Musk / SpaceX: The CEO insists exponential growth in AI and cloud services justifies the trillion-dollar target, pointing to recent revenue surges from Grok and cloud contracts. Analysts and Investors: Neil Wilson of Saxo Bank calls the 2028 timeline “zero” probability, citing the implausible scale of growth required. JPMorgan’s more conservative $254 billion forecast for 2027 suggests Wall Street is far from convinced. Critics/Sceptics: The gap between current revenue and the target is enormous; even with a 161% quarterly growth rate, sustaining that pace for three years would require continuous acceleration in markets that may saturate or face competition.

What to Watch

SpaceX’s next quarterly earnings reports, especially growth rates in the super-intelligence division.
Any formal merger talks between Tesla and SpaceX, which could change revenue consolidation.
Competitor responses in AI and satellite broadband that could pressure SpaceX’s margins and growth trajectory.

Sources

Elon Musk says SpaceX hitting $1 trillion in revenue in 2028 is 'no longer impossible' · All Content from Business Insider

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedAnalysts were sceptical of Musk’s $1 trillion 2028 target.All Content from Business Insider: “Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Bank, told Business Insider by email that SpaceX raking in $1 trillion of revenue by 2028 was “pushing it.” That figure “would imply such an enormous pull-forward in demand as to defy credibility,” he said.”
SupportedMusk said it was “no longer impossible” for SpaceX to generate $1 trillion in revenue in 2028.All Content from Business Insider: ““As crazy as this sounds, $1T in SpaceX revenue in 2028 is no longer impossible,” the Tesla and SpaceX CEO said in a Tuesday post on X.”
Partly supportedAnalysts immediately said the target’s required 53-fold growth was implausible.All Content from Business Insider: “If SpaceX were to generate $1 trillion in revenue in 2028, that would represent a 53-fold increase in three years.”
SupportedMusk’s $1 trillion 2028 target is more ambitious than his previous 2030 projection, which had a non-zero chance of being reached in 2029.All Content from Business Insider: “He said in August that SpaceX was internally projecting $1 trillion of revenue in 2030, and there was a “non-zero” chance it could reach that amount in 2029.”
SupportedMusk made the 2028 statement within hours of the third-quarter earnings webcast.All Content from Business Insider: “Musk made his latest pronouncement within hours of saying on SpaceX's third-quarter earnings webcast that annual recurring revenue could reach between $500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027.”
SupportedReaching $1 trillion in 2028 would require roughly 53-fold growth from SpaceX’s 2025 revenue of about $19 billion.All Content from Business Insider: “If SpaceX were to generate $1 trillion in revenue in 2028, that would represent a 53-fold increase in three years. It earned just under $19 billion in 2025.”
SupportedSpaceX reported close to $15 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 161% from the same period in 2025.All Content from Business Insider: “After the bell on Tuesday, SpaceX — the company behind Falcon rockets, Starlink satellites, X, and AI chatbot Grok — posted close to $15 billion in revenue last quarter, up 161% from the same period of 2025.”
SupportedSpaceX’s super-intelligence division was the key driver of revenue growth, with revenue up 830% to $7.6 billion, attributed to cloud-services agreements, Cursor revenue and increased enterprise adoption of Grok.All Content from Business Insider: “The key driver was its super-intelligence division, where revenue surged 830%, from around $800 million to $7.6 billion. SpaceX attributed the growth to new cloud services agreements, around $600 million of revenue from its recent Cursor acquisition, and increased Grok adoption by enterprises.”
SupportedJPMorgan forecast SpaceX would generate $254 billion in revenue in 2027.All Content from Business Insider: “In a post-earnings note, JPMorgan forecast SpaceX would generate $254 billion of revenue in 2027.”
SupportedWilson said the target would imply an enormous pull-forward in demand that defied credibility, and that the chance of reaching it by 2028 was zero.All Content from Business Insider: “That figure “would imply such an enormous pull-forward in demand as to defy credibility,” he said. Wilson added that he’d “never say never” about SpaceX hitting $1 trillion of revenue, “but by 2028 I’d say the chance is zero, whatever Elon says!””
SupportedSpaceX had gone public earlier in 2026.All Content from Business Insider: “It shared its historical financials prior to going public this summer.”
SupportedMusk said Tesla and SpaceX had formed committees to explore a potential merger.All Content from Business Insider: “He revealed on Tuesday that Tesla and SpaceX have formed committees to explore a potential merger.”

Correction

21 October 2026An earlier version of this story said Musk made the 2028 revenue claim both on X and during SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings webcast. He made that claim on X; his webcast projection concerned annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027.