In the three months following the strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the average price of gasoline in America rose from $2.94 to $4.35 a gallon. While sales of hybrid vehicles surged 18 percent over the same period, sales of fully electric vehicles fell by 16 percent. Writing in The Conversation, Helveston contends that the divergence has little to do with consumer preferences and everything to do with what was actually available to buy.
The supply of new EVs had been in retreat since the Trump administration ended federal tax credits for electric vehicles in September 2025. Automakers responded by cutting capacity. General Motors laid off more than 3,400 workers at its EV and battery plants. Ford wrote down $19.5 billion from its EV business and ended production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning truck. By November 2025, the EV share of new vehicle sales had fallen to 4.3 percent, down from a credit-fueled high of 11.3 percent in September.
When the Iran crisis drove up demand for efficient vehicles in early 2026, the industry was unprepared. An analysis of online listings from marketcheck.com shows the median discount on new EVs shrank from 9.8 percent below sticker price in February to just 4.7 percent in June, a sign that supply was tight. Inventories of new EVs fell from roughly 130 days of supply in the first quarter to 78 days by August, barely above the level for gasoline cars.
The used market tells a similar story. Prices for used electric vehicles climbed 13 percent through late June, adding about $3,500 to the cost of a typical vehicle. Recurrent, a company that tracks used EV batteries, found the price of a used 2023 Chevrolet Bolt rose almost 20 percent between January and June. Used EV inventories fell to just 31 days of supply in May.
Federal policy is continuing to move in the same direction. A new fuel economy rule released in September 2026 loosens efficiency requirements for gas-powered vehicles. A Commerce Department rule will bar cars from Chinese-linked automakers starting with the 2027 model year, and a bill in Congress would widen that ban. American buyers had just four EV models priced under $40,000 in 2024, compared with more than 130 in China.
The result, Helveston concludes, is that drivers remain exposed to the volatility of world oil prices with fewer alternatives. With oil still above $100 a barrel in mid-October and diesel hitting a record $6.52 a gallon in late September, the gap between the electric vehicles Americans want and those available to buy looks set to persist.