With a quarter of all votes counted, National led with 30.71 per cent to Labour's 28.73, followed by the Green Party on 12.92, ACT on 11.2, New Zealand First on 9.81 and the Opportunity party on 5.43, according to figures from RNZ.
The election was held under New Zealand's mixed member proportional system, in which the party vote decides each party's share of the nominally 120 seats in the single-chamber parliament. Seats are allocated first through electorate seats and then topped up with “list” seats, with extra seats added as “overhang” seats when a party wins more electorates than its party vote would indicate. Parties must clear 5 per cent of the party vote to get list seats unless they win an electorate. The campaign was overshadowed by cost of living pressures and an economy buffeted by international shocks, with National, in coalition with ACT and New Zealand First, seeking a second term and Labour, led by Chris Hipkins, trying to regain office.
Experts said the contest had turned negative. "I'm not sure anyone has much enjoyed it," Richard Shaw, a professor of politics at Massey University, told the ABC. "The policy contest which marked the opening stanzas has largely fallen away into an acrimonious exchange between the left and the right about how to game the electoral system through strategic voting."
Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Victoria University of Wellington, said National and Labour focused on criticising not just each other but the people involved, with Labour seeking to exploit the unpopularity of Luxon and National doing the same with Hipkins. Smaller parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity party focused on policy initiatives and their vision for the country, he said. "In an electorate with a plurality that has consistently indicated they are on the wrong track, it could be that these parties benefit from dissatisfaction with the direction of the government."
Jamieson said a left-leaning coalition may depend on the Opportunity party reaching parliament. "Polls suggest a left-leaning coalition is likely dependent on them making it to parliament (and joining that coalition), so if they do not, it is much more likely the incumbent government will be re-elected."
Other signals to watch are turnout, which Jamieson said is likely to favour Labour and the Greens if it is higher, and overhang seats, which could dictate who can form a government if one side wins considerably more overhang seats than the other. Shaw said he would be watching Luxon's seat of Botany: “He holds it with a huge majority, but if that margin falls appreciably it could be an indicator that National are in trouble in the electorates.”
The first results were expected before 7.30pm New Zealand time, with the Electoral Commission targeting results from 50 per cent of voting places by 10pm and 95 per cent by 11.30pm. The official count begins tomorrow, with official results aimed for November 27. Professor Shaw expected a long three weeks, with special votes, which take longer to count, potentially consequential: "We may have a clear result tonight, but that seems unlikely."