The 17 incoming senators elected this week will take office as Social Security faces a funding shortfall. The program’s trust fund is projected to run dry in late 2032; after that, payroll-tax revenue would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits, forcing an automatic cut of roughly 22% unless Congress acts. The lawmakers’ campaign positions offer differing approaches to the gap.
Social Security cannot be changed through budget reconciliation, so a fix will likely need 60 votes and support from both parties.
Several Democrats favor raising or eliminating the $184,500 cap on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes. Juliana Stratton of Illinois said she would eliminate the cap. Eliminating it starting in 2027 without increasing benefits for the additional earnings taxed would close an estimated 58% of the projected 75-year funding shortfall, according to Social Security Administration actuaries. Josh Turek of Iowa said he would lift the cap, while Adam Hamilton of Kansas would raise it rather than eliminate it, arguing that someone earning $1 million should not pay the same Social Security tax as someone earning $184,500. Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan said the cap should be removed and benefits should not be taxed. According to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, eliminating taxes on benefits without replacing the revenue would cost Social Security about $1 trillion over 10 years.
Some Republicans have offered other approaches. Kurt Alme of Montana said savings from cutting waste, fraud, and abuse elsewhere in government should go toward Social Security; in an October debate, he did not propose changes to the cap or benefit formula. Barry Moore of Alabama cosponsored a bill that would remove Social Security benefits from taxable income and replace the lost revenue with general funds. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming said growing the economy, creating jobs and getting more people into the workforce would help shore up the program.
Some proposals cross party lines: Annie Andrews of South Carolina, a Democrat, supports eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits. Andy Barr of Kentucky, a Republican, opposed changes for people already retired. Democrats Chris Pappas of New Hampshire and Roy Cooper of North Carolina oppose benefit cuts.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Failure to act by 2032 will trigger automatic 22% benefit cuts affecting tens of millions of retirees.
- The incoming senators’ positions will shape whether a bipartisan deal is possible; the need for 60 votes gives leverage to moderates.
- The choices made now will affect the program’s solvency for decades.
Background
Social Security, the U.S. federal retirement and disability insurance program, is funded through payroll taxes on workers’ earnings. The program’s trust fund is expected to be depleted by the early 2030s, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover only about three-quarters of promised benefits, leading to automatic cuts. For decades, lawmakers have struggled to reach agreement on reforms, with partisan divisions over tax increases versus benefit cuts.
Key Perspectives
- Juliana Stratton (D-Illinois): favors eliminating the cap on wages subject to Social Security payroll tax.
- Barry Moore (R-Alabama): cosponsored a bill to remove Social Security benefits from taxable income and replace lost revenue with general funds.
- Abdul El-Sayed (D-Michigan): would eliminate the payroll tax cap and end federal taxes on Social Security benefits.
- Kurt Alme (R-Montana): says savings from cutting waste, fraud, and abuse should go to Social Security without changing the cap or formula.
- Roy Cooper (D-North Carolina): opposes benefit cuts and says wealthy Americans should contribute more, but hasn’t specified how.
- Harriet Hageman (R-Wyoming): emphasizes economic growth and job creation as the way to shore up trust funds.
What to Watch
- Whether the new senators form a bipartisan coalition to craft a compromise.
- The specifics of any bill to eliminate the payroll tax cap and whether it can attract Republican support.
- The reaction of retiree and advocacy groups to potential cuts or tax increases.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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- SupportedNew senators face a Social Security funding deadline and have varied proposals.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Senators elected to full terms this week serve until January 2033, so the deadline falls on their watch. ... Here’s what each incoming senator has actually said they would do.”
- SupportedSome Democrats back payroll-tax changes.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Juliana Stratton, D-Illinois — Stratton said she would eliminate the cap on wages subject to the payroll tax”
- SupportedSome Republicans back benefit-tax cuts or cite economic growth as an approach.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Barry Moore’s Senate campaign website backed cutting taxes on Social Security benefits. ... Hageman said growing the economy, creating jobs, and getting more people into the workforce would help shore up the program.”
- SupportedSeventeen incoming senators were elected this week.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Together, the 17 newcomers from both parties will join the next Congress”
- SupportedThe trust fund is projected to run dry in late 2032; afterward, payroll-tax revenue would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits, prompting an automatic cut of roughly 22% unless Congress acts.Fortune | FORTUNE: “The program’s trust fund is projected to run dry in late 2032. After that, payroll tax revenue would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits—forcing an automatic cut of roughly 22% unless Congress acts.”
- SupportedA Social Security fix will likely need 60 votes and bipartisan support because the program cannot be changed through budget reconciliation.Fortune | FORTUNE: “And because Social Security can’t be changed through budget reconciliation, a fix will likely need 60 votes and support from both parties.”
- SupportedJuliana Stratton said she would eliminate the cap on wages subject to Social Security payroll tax.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Juliana Stratton, D-Illinois — Stratton said she would eliminate the cap on wages subject to the payroll tax”
- SupportedThe cap is $184,500, and eliminating it from 2027 without increasing benefits for the additional earnings taxed would close an estimated 58% of the projected 75-year shortfall.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Social Security payroll taxes now apply only to the first $184,500 of a worker’s yearly earnings. Eliminating that cap starting in 2027, without increasing benefits for the additional earnings taxed, would close an estimated 58% of Social Security’s projected 75-year funding shortfall”
- SupportedAdam Hamilton would raise the earnings cap rather than eliminate it, and argued that someone earning $1 million should not pay the same Social Security tax as someone earning $184,500.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Adam Hamilton, D-Kansas — Hamilton would raise the earnings cap rather than eliminate it, arguing that someone earning $1 million shouldn’t pay the same Social Security tax as someone earning $184,500.”
- SupportedAbdul El-Sayed said the payroll-tax cap should be removed and Social Security benefits should not be taxed.Fortune | FORTUNE: “In his final debate, El-Sayed said the payroll tax cap should be removed and that Social Security benefits shouldn’t be taxed.”
- SupportedEliminating taxes on benefits without replacing the revenue would cost Social Security about $1 trillion over 10 years.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Eliminating taxes on benefits without replacing revenue would cost Social Security about $1 trillion over 10 years”
- SupportedIn an October debate, Kurt Alme did not propose changes to the payroll-tax cap or benefit formula.Fortune | FORTUNE: “In an October debate, he pointed to his experience as Montana’s budget director but didn’t propose changes to the cap or the benefit formula.”