NHS risks ‘system failures’ as demand for ADHD and autism care surges, inquiry warns

Government-commissioned Fonagy review finds rising mental distress across all ages and calls for needs-based access and tighter regulation of private clinics

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The NHS in England is heading into a “world of system failures” as it struggles with relentlessly rising demand for mental health, ADHD and autism care, a government-commissioned inquiry has found. The review, led by Professor Peter Fonagy, warns that without urgent reform, patients face years-long waits and worsening symptoms while the risk of overdiagnosis grows.

The 607-page report, commissioned by the government and published on Thursday, examined the sharp increase in demand for help with mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions over recent decades. It found that the number of people suffering mental distress has risen significantly across all age groups since the 1990s, with the sharpest increase among 16- to 24-year-olds — from about one in six to one in four.

“The rise in mental health problems is real, is affecting everyday functioning and cannot be explained by greater awareness alone,” the report said. Fonagy, a psychoanalyst and clinical psychologist at University College London, dismissed the notion that young people were “snowflakes” who lack resilience. He pointed to increased uncertainty, financial pressures, insecure work, unaffordable housing, and “a lack of hope among young people that their lives will be better than their parents — the first time since the second world war that surveys have noticed that.”

At the end of 2024, more than 560,000 people in England were waiting to be assessed for ADHD — 17 times more than in 2019. A further 254,000 were waiting for a diagnostic assessment for other conditions. The inquiry warns that many patients are turning to private clinics because they cannot get quick NHS assessments, and it urges ministers to toughen regulation of those clinics to prevent overdiagnosis of autism and ADHD.

The review also recommends that access to care should be based primarily on a person’s needs rather than on a formal diagnosis, which could help reduce waiting lists. Professor Simon Wessely, vice-chair of the review, said sceptics who question young people’s struggles are wrong: “That’s sometimes been attributed to personal failures, people being told they’re making it up, it’s all in their head, which is absolute nonsense.”

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The review directly affects the 560,000 people waiting for ADHD assessments and the 254,000 waiting for other neurodevelopmental diagnoses in England, many of whom are children and young adults.
  • The findings have major implications for the government’s drive to reduce the number of young people not in education, employment or training (now almost 1 million) and the welfare bill, with a record 2.8 million people too sick to work.
  • Schools and employers will need to adapt as the number of pupils and workers with special educational needs and mental health conditions continues to grow.

Background

Mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions have been rising as a share of NHS demand for decades. The prevalence of common mental disorders among 16- to 64-year-olds in England increased from 15.5% in 1993 to 22.6% in 2024. The NHS has repeatedly warned about long waiting times for child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) and adult ADHD clinics. Private providers have filled some of the gap, but concerns about inconsistent diagnostic standards have prompted calls for stricter regulation.

Key Perspectives

Inquiry panel: The rise in mental distress is real and driven by social and economic pressures, not just greater awareness. Access to care should shift from formal diagnosis to needs-based allocation to reduce waiting times. Private clinics: Increasingly used by patients who cannot wait for NHS assessments, but the review warns of overdiagnosis and calls for tougher regulation to ensure quality and consistency. Government and NHS leaders: Facing pressure to respond to the review’s recommendations while managing tight budgets and rising demand. The report may influence the upcoming welfare and health service reforms. Critics and sceptics: Some have questioned whether young people are genuinely more distressed or simply more willing to label normal emotions as disorders. The review strongly rejects that view as “absolute nonsense.”

What to Watch

  • Government response: whether ministers accept the recommendation to shift to needs-based access and how quickly they regulate private clinics.
  • Waiting list trends: whether the number of people waiting for ADHD and autism assessments stabilises or continues to rise.
  • Impact on welfare and education policy: the review’s findings could lead to changes in how sickness benefits and special educational needs support are allocated.

Sources

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