Nine of the world's largest listed oil companies are on course to share more than $95bn in profits for the third quarter of 2026, according to analysis by investment broker AJ Bell, as the war in the Middle East pushes crude prices sharply higher.
The projected earnings follow a second quarter in which the same firms made $96bn in profit, and come amid global oil prices that surged above $126 a barrel following the US-Israel war on Iran, which disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Aramco, the state-owned giant valued at $1.7tn, is expected to lead the pack with a 7% increase in quarterly net income to $30bn. BP reported its largest quarterly profit since 2008, posting $8.46bn for the July to September period.
Campaigners criticised the companies’ profits. Mike Childs of Friends of the Earth said the companies were “raking in enormous profits while millions of people struggle to afford their energy bills and the planet burns”. He said polluters making billions from the current system must be forced to contribute more to building a cleaner energy system. Robin Wells, director of Fossil Free London, questioned why the UK government continued to subsidise an industry making billions in profit each quarter, and criticised the oil lobby’s push for tax breaks to develop the Rosebank oilfield, which he said would not lower energy bills because the oil would be exported.
The UK energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, is currently weighing whether to approve the Rosebank oilfield after licensing the Jackdaw gasfield. Experts estimate Rosebank could emit 1 million additional tonnes of carbon dioxide a year by 2042.
Industry representatives offered varied responses. Shell and Saudi Aramco declined to comment. A BP spokesperson pointed to comments by chief executive Meg O’Neill, who highlighted the company’s role in responding to the global energy crisis and ensuring supplies of diesel and jet fuel. Eni said its profits resulted from an effective operational and financial management model that enables it to develop new hydrocarbon resources to meet global demand, which it said continues to rely on oil and gas; it added that it had expanded its energy transition business, including renewables. Equinor, TotalEnergies, Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips were contacted for comment.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The windfall underscores how geopolitical conflict translates into direct profit for the oil industry, often at the expense of households facing higher bills.
- The debate over the Rosebank oilfield puts the UK government's climate commitments under an immediate spotlight.
- Record profits may galvanise support for windfall taxes or accelerated divestment from fossil fuels.
Background
The third-quarter results follow a period of significant disruption in global oil markets. The US-Israel war on Iran, which began seven months prior, led to a surge in oil prices above $126 a barrel as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were hit. This price environment has been a major driver of the record profits reported by the world's largest oil companies.
Key Perspectives
Campaign Groups (Friends of the Earth, Fossil Free London): Accuse oil companies of exploiting the crisis to generate windfall profits and argue that subsidies for new drilling projects, such as Rosebank, are counterproductive to climate goals and energy affordability.
Oil Companies (Eni, BP): Defend the profits as a necessary outcome of meeting global energy demand during an energy crisis, and highlight their ongoing investments in energy transition business.
UK Government: Currently weighing a decision on the Rosebank oilfield, placing the government at the centre of the tension between energy security, economic benefits, and its legally binding net-zero targets.
What to Watch
- The decision from UK Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh on the Rosebank oilfield, expected soon after the approval of the Jackdaw gasfield.
- Whether governments respond to the profit windfall with policy changes, such as windfall taxes or stricter conditions on new licenses.
- The trajectory of the Middle East conflict and its continued impact on global fuel prices.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
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- Partly supportedNine oil firms are on track for $95bn in quarterly profit.Business | The Guardian: “nine of the biggest listed oil producers are on course to make more than $95bn in the three months to the end of September.”
- SupportedThe Middle East war is driving up prices behind the projected profits.Business | The Guardian: “The world’s biggest oil companies are on track to amass profits of more than $95bn (£71bn) in the third quarter as the war in the Middle East drives up the price of fossil fuels.”
- SupportedWindfall profits have prompted calls over fossil fuel subsidies and the renewable energy transition.Business | The Guardian: “The windfall war profits have sparked calls for oil corporations such as Saudi Aramco and BP to pay for environmental damage and help the world transition towards renewable energy.”
- SupportedAJ Bell analysis found nine of the world’s largest listed oil companies are on course to share more than $95bn in third-quarter profits.Business | The Guardian: “Analysis by the investment broker AJ Bell has found that nine of the biggest listed oil producers are on course to make more than $95bn in the three months to the end of September.”
- SupportedThe same firms made $96bn in profit in the second quarter.Business | The Guardian: “and followed a second quarter in which the same businesses made $96bn in profit.”
- Partly supportedThe war pushed crude prices sharply higher, with global oil prices surging above $126 a barrel.Business | The Guardian: “The windfall came seven months after the US-Israel war on Iran caused a surge in global oil prices to highs above $126 a barrel”
- SupportedThe war disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.Business | The Guardian: “made up for a supply shortfall after the Iran war in hit shipments through the strait of Hormuz.”
- SupportedSaudi Aramco is state-owned, valued at $1.7tn, and expected to raise quarterly net income by 7% to $30bn.Business | The Guardian: “Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Aramco is expected to top the profits chart for the third quarter. Analysts anticipate the $1.7tn company to report a 7% increase in its quarterly net income to $30bn”
- SupportedBP reported $8.46bn in July-to-September quarterly profits, its biggest since 2008.Business | The Guardian: “The London-listed BP published its results for the July to September period last week, reporting quarterly profits of $8.46bn – its biggest since 2008.”
- SupportedMike Childs said the companies were “raking in enormous profits while millions of people struggle to afford their energy bills and the planet burns”.Business | The Guardian: ““are raking in enormous profits while millions of people struggle to afford their energy bills and the planet burns”, said Mike Childs, of the campaign group Friends of the Earth.”
- SupportedChilds said polluters making billions from the current system must contribute more to building a cleaner energy system.Business | The Guardian: “And those polluters making billions from the current system must be forced to contribute more to build the cleaner, cheaper energy system we urgently need.”
- SupportedThe energy secretary is weighing whether to allow Rosebank drilling after approving a Jackdaw gasfield licence in October.Business | The Guardian: “Miatta Fahnbulleh, is weighing up whether to allow drilling in the Rosebank oilfield in the North Sea after approving a licence for the less controversial Jackdaw gasfield in October.”
