Global oil prices have continued to fall after Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran were unlikely, with Brent crude trading at around $US93 a barrel on November 10, down from $US111.9 a week ago, but experts say it may take time for lower prices to reach Australian motorists.
The drop in prices over the past week reflected optimism in the world oil trade by investors following a Democratic majority win in both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections, according to Daniel Prior, supply chain expert at the University of New South Wales.
“Back in early October, oil prices were about US$110 a barrel and even slightly more than that,” he said. “Now we're seeing the $90s as sort of the more typical price of trade.”
Ian Jeffreys, from Queensland's motor peak body RACQ, said global oil prices fell significantly last week, hitting a low on Wednesday before a slight rebound at the end of the week. He urged fuel companies to pass the reductions on to motorists in the coming days.
“What we've seen is fuel companies are retaining some of those savings and bolstering their retail margins, and what we would urge them to do in the coming days is to pass those savings on to motorists,” he said.
Dr Prior said the benefit might take time to reach consumers because suppliers to the Australian market need to purchase oil from the spot market at the lower prices, then pass their own costs down through the supply chain. He noted that during a similar situation earlier in the year, some retailers were able to move more quickly than others because they were confident their suppliers could pass the cost on to them.
Dr Jeffreys said that while the supply chain needed time to adjust in the regions, metropolitan areas, where fuel is resupplied several times weekly, would start to purchase at lower prices in the coming days. “In our smaller centres, it does take a few weeks for the old fuel to be sold, and the new fuel to come in, and therefore the prices would fall a little later,” he said.
As of November 10, the average unleaded price in each capital city ranged from $2.25 per litre in South Australia to $2.65 per litre in the Northern Territory.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in October that the Ukraine and Iran wars had exposed the fragility of the global economy and warned oil prices might not drop to a normal level until 2030. Dr Jeffreys agreed that despite the latest reprieve, the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine would continue to impact prices in the immediate future.
“The world still remains highly volatile,” he said. “The Ukraine war is still ongoing, and that is impacting diesel prices in particular. So yeah, there still remains a high degree of uncertainty and high degree of volatility.”
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Australian households already facing cost-of-living pressures could see some relief at the petrol pump if savings are passed on, lowering weekly transport costs.
- The oil price drop reflects investor confidence in a stable US policy environment after the midterms, signalling that geopolitical risk premiums may ease, but ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran keep markets volatile.
- The gap between crude oil falls and retail pump prices highlights the power of fuel retailers to manage margins, affecting how quickly consumers benefit from global price movements.
Background
Oil prices began rising sharply in early 2026 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and escalating tensions between the US and Iran. In October, Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that prices might not normalise until 2030. However, the US midterm elections, which delivered Democratic control of both chambers, led investors to bet on a less confrontational foreign policy, pushing crude prices down. Brent crude fell from $US111.9 a barrel a week ago to about $US93 on November 10, helped by Donald Trump's comment that new strikes on Iran were "unlikely".
Key Perspectives
Daniel Prior (supply chain expert, UNSW): says the price drop reflects optimism from investors following the Democratic majority win in the US midterms. He notes that the lower oil price will take time to reach Australian consumers because suppliers must purchase from the spot market and pass costs through the supply chain.
Ian Jeffreys (RACQ): says global oil prices fell significantly last week, and urges fuel companies to pass savings on to motorists quickly. He warns that while metro areas may see relief within days, regional areas will take weeks because old fuel must be sold first.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers: has previously warned that oil prices may not drop to normal levels until 2030 due to the fragility of the global economy exposed by the Ukraine and Iran wars.
What to Watch
- Whether major fuel retailers in capital cities cut pump prices in the next few days, particularly in Adelaide, Perth, Sydney and Brisbane where average unleaded is above $2.25 per litre.
- Developments in the Iran and Ukraine conflicts that could reverse the price drop; a new strike on Iran would likely push oil prices back up.
- Whether the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission monitors retailer margins or issues guidance on passing on savings.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedDaniel Prior said, “Back in early October, oil prices were about US$110 a barrel and even slightly more than that.”Just In: ““Back in early October, oil prices were about US$110 a barrel and even slightly more than that,” he said.”
- SupportedDaniel Prior said, “Now we're seeing the $90s as sort of the more typical price of trade.”Just In: ““Now we're seeing the $90s as sort of the more typical price of trade.””
- SupportedIan Jeffreys said fuel companies were retaining some savings and bolstering retail margins, and urged them to pass the savings on to motorists in the coming days.Just In: ““What we've seen is fuel companies are retaining some of those savings and bolstering their retail margins, and what we would urge them to do in the coming days is to pass those savings on to motorists,” he said.”
- SupportedIan Jeffreys said, “In our smaller centres, it does take a few weeks for the old fuel to be sold, and the new fuel to come in, and therefore the prices would fall a little later.”Just In: ““In our smaller centres, it does take a few weeks for the old fuel to be sold, and the new fuel to come in, and therefore the prices would fall a little later," Dr Jefferys said.”
- SupportedIan Jeffreys said the world remained volatile, the Ukraine war was ongoing and affecting diesel prices, and uncertainty and volatility remained high.Just In: ““The world still remains highly volatile,” he said. “The Ukraine war is still ongoing, and that is impacting diesel prices in particular. “So yeah, there still remains a high degree of uncertainty and high degree of volatility.””
- SupportedOil prices continued to fall after Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran were unlikely.Just In: “Global oil prices have continued to drop this morning after Donald Trump said new strikes on Iran were "unlikely".”
- SupportedThe headline says oil prices fell after the US midterms and Australian motorists face a wait for pump relief.Just In: “The drop in prices over the past week showed optimism in the world oil trade by investors off the back of a Democratic majority win in both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections, according to Daniel Prior, supply chain expert at the University of New South Wales.”
- SupportedBrent crude was around $US93 a barrel on November 10, down from $US111.9 a week earlier.Just In: “As of November 10, Brent crude oil prices were around $U93 a barrel down from $US111.9 a week ago.”
- SupportedDaniel Prior said investors' optimism following a Democratic majority win in both the House and Senate contributed to the oil-price drop.Just In: “The drop in prices over the past week showed optimism in the world oil trade by investors off the back of a Democratic majority win in both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections, according to Daniel Prior”
- SupportedLower prices may take time to reach Australian motorists because suppliers need to buy oil at lower spot-market prices and pass their costs down the supply chain.Just In: ““The suppliers to the Australian market will need to purchase the oil from the spot market at those prices, then pass their own costs down through the Australian oil supply chain,” he said.”
- SupportedJeffreys said metropolitan areas resupplied several times weekly would start buying at lower prices in the coming days, while smaller centres could take a few weeks to see prices fall.Just In: “He said that while the supply chain needed time to adjust in the regions, metro areas, where they resupply several times weekly, would start to purchase cut prices in the coming days. “In our smaller centres, it does take a few weeks for the old fuel to be sold, and the new fuel to come in, and therefore the prices would fall a little later,”
- SupportedAs of November 10, average unleaded prices in the capital cities ranged from $2.25 per litre in South Australia to $2.65 per litre in the Northern Territory.Just In: “Today, the average unleaded price in each capital city is: South Australia $2.25 per litre ... Northern Territory $2.65 per litre”